aj in sb

[Wolfram]

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Without a gutshot (lets say AQ) you would play bet/fold here?

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I don't know. The huge problem is that the 9 hits a big part of his range. he would probably raise us with the 7 or the 8 and maybe even the 4, so he was probably peeling.

I figure the 9 completes his hand often enough that bet/folding is ok. But villain might figure it's a scarecard and try to push us off the hand. He'd probably be right in doing so as well because if he didn't hit, it's likely to have given him added outs.

Is check/calling and then hoping for a free showdown spew? (we allow villain to play us perfectly by value betting the river every time).

[kiddo]

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Facing a raise on turn in this spot means opponent is holding a top pair with a good/medium kicker

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Im a 30/20TAG and if I raised this turn against another aggressive player it could be with a ton of hands, not only toppair, so I think u narrow his hand down way 2 much (I would for example often raise any pair I hit on flop on turn because I want to punish a guy who likes to bet both flop and turn with UI cards)

but anyway, we agree on that if we are raised we are normally behind but need to call, so if we are raised the cost of drawing is 2BB and our outs arent that clean. If we instead checkcall its maximum 1BB. So why do we bet? Obviously because we want him to fold bad hands and call with draws that are worse then our AJ. But also obviously, if we check a 30/20 TAG will sometimes bet both not so good draws and pure bluffs.

So: what handrange and what playing style on this 30/20 are we thinking about when we prefer bet-call instead of check-call? This was my question. (handrange is narrowed down since this 30/20 TAG called flop against us who is a player he hopefully respect)

[XXsooted]

I think clearly check/call turn and river since you have 10 outs against one pair hands and the times you are taken to value town should more or less balance out with the times he bets with a worse hand. A large part of his range is 5x and 6x for example. I'd ch/fold if river came 5 or 6

[Unphased]

if he is good i check/call turn check/fold river... river bet is never less than a pair. Against bad opp i check/call turn and river, and against passive opp i bet/fold turn, and check call river