5.5: Maniac goes all in at the beginning, call justified?

[Kevin8423]

Taking 60/40s early on is actually bad, and you should avoid them. You get your edge from play during the higher blinds, not from flipping with a slight lead early on. You can easily find better spots than a 60/40 if you just wait.

[donkeykong2]

you can call, lose and open a new sng and wait there if necessary [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
in this spot, after he raised all in 3 times in a row you cant fold anything you have raised before, i would raise/call here with any decent ace and probably 66+ or 77+.

[dfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Taking 60/40s early on is actually bad, and you should avoid them. You get your edge from play during the higher blinds, not from flipping with a slight lead early on. You can easily find better spots than a 60/40 if you just wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is correct.

Assume 1st hand of sng, opponent pushes and you know you are a 60/40 favorite.

Your fold equity is .1111 x $45 = $5.00.
If you call and win your ICM equity is .2028.
Your overall prize equity for calling=.60x.2028=.122 ICM equity x $45 = $5.48. So calling is worth 48 cents on average.

In general, if you fold the first hand as a 60% favorite you are throwing away an expected increase of .1222-.1111=.0111=1.1 percentage points of ICM equity. Or looked at another way, you are passing up an expected percentage increase in your equity of 9.4% (.122/.1111). That's quite a bit.

In this particular case AKs vs QJs is a 63.5% favorite. So if you could somehow know your opponent had QJs then your call equity is .635*.2028=.129 x $45 = $5.80, so your call is worth 80 cents, or roi=14.5% of your buy-in (including rake).

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking 60/40s early on is actually bad, and you should avoid them. You get your edge from play during the higher blinds, not from flipping with a slight lead early on. You can easily find better spots than a 60/40 if you just wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is correct.

Assume 1st hand of sng, opponent pushes and you know you are a 60/40 favorite.

Your fold equity is .1111 x $45 = $5.00.
If you call and win your ICM equity is .2028.
Your overall prize equity for calling=.60x.2028=.122 ICM equity x $45 = $5.48. So calling is worth 48 cents on average.

In general, if you fold the first hand as a 60% favorite you are throwing away an expected increase of .1222-.1111=.0111=1.1 percentage points of ICM equity. Or looked at another way, you are passing up an expected percentage increase in your equity of 9.4% (.122/.1111). That's quite a bit.

In this particular case AKs vs QJs is a 63.5% favorite. So if you could somehow know your opponent had QJs then your call equity is .635*.2028=.129 x $45 = $5.80, so your call is worth 80 cents, or 14.5% of your buy-in (including rake).

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that you never will actually know that and a good % of the time they will hold a PP that will be 50/50.

[dfan]

You said "taking 60/40's early on is actually bad, and you should avoid them." That is just flat wrong and I was pointing out why it is wrong. If you put your opponent on a range and you feel you will, on average, be a 60-40 favorite you should call in a heartbeat. Folding will cost you on average an almost 10% roi.

[PattdownManiac]

60% obviously isn't a big enough edge. You should, on average, get it all-in preflop as a 75 to 95% favorite.

[sence25]

[ QUOTE ]
60% obviously isn't a big enough edge. You should, on average, get it all-in preflop as a 75 to 95% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]
95% favorite? sure.

[SayGN]

[ QUOTE ]
60% obviously isn't a big enough edge. You should, on average, get it all-in preflop as a 75 to 95% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're waiting for 75-95% favorites, you're passing on a ton of money. 60% favorite is good enough for me.

[sence25]

with which hand would you ever be a 95% fav?!

[DeuceSeven]

Im like brandi, I get it in only as a 95% favorite so I'd call all ins with AK.