WSOP 150: River Sexy with bottom full vs PF raiser?

[thebeebster]

i shoved, he folded. on the turn i couldn't decide whether i wanted to bet a size that would make him move on me or get closer to pot so that i'm not overbetting river to huge. the only draw got there. don't know why a pf raiser would have 87, but this is like the 6th hand of a tournament with a ton of satellites. so that convinced me to shove.

[Fiksdal]

Villain might get away from some of the weaker aces in his range if we overbet shove, but value bet them if we check?

[curtains]

No way in hell you should checkraise this river. If he has an ace he's not folding (and often raising), if he doesn't have an ace he's not betting. Your best bet is trying to induce a call with whatever underpair he has.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain might get away from some of the weaker aces in his range if we overbet shove, but value bet them if we check?

[/ QUOTE ]


villain probably doesn't have an ace and no way in hell he's folding on the river if he does, no matter what we do.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf? assuming 'sexy' means checkraise now (did I miss this?), I don't like it at all. stack your ace rag please. he's like never ever bluffing this river and every hand that he bets he would call a shove with

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you think overbet shove is better? Checking you can induce a bluff although it is very rare, but you also increase the probability of stacking an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]


Dude cmon if he has an ace you win all the chips when you go allin nearly 100% of the time. You think villain flat called with an ace on the turn because he's scared his hand is no good??

The only question here is how to extract the most from KK-TT type hands and I really don't think checking is the answer. Also if you bet like 1000 and the villain somehow has an ace, I suspect he will raise the majority of the time. Honestly there is no reason to put villain on an ace, everything about this hand screams KK-TT, most likely KK-QQ if I had to guess.

[thebeebster]

so bet 1200, or a little less so he can still min-raise?

[luckychewy]

i agree w/ everything curtains said, kk-tt seems more likely than ax, except i think an ace flats the river if we lead. i think betting a little more than half pot > shoving because my guess would be those hands fold to a shove too often where they pay off slightly more than half pot much more.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/ everything curtains said, kk-tt seems more likely than ax, except i think an ace flats the river if we lead. i think betting a little more than half pot > shoving because my guess would be those hands fold to a shove too often where they pay off slightly more than half pot much more.

[/ QUOTE ]


He raised preflop ,if for whatever reason he has an ace, its probably a good one. You think he flat calls the flop and turn with AQ here because of fear? Once that second ace comes it's like Christmas for some random guy and all he's thinking about is how to extract the most money from his opponent who keeps betting for some reason.

[NoahSD]

The only hand I see bluffing this river is 78. Oh... wait a minute...

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I see bluffing this river is 78. Oh... wait a minute...

[/ QUOTE ]

No reason why this guy would nhave 87 after raising preflop. Someone who raises 87 to 60 after 2 limpers is very likely to push it hard on the flop when he makes an open ended straight draw. Of course I may be completely misunderstanding what you are saying, since you weren't particularly clear.