25 NL, am I facing Aces?

[ocdscale]

I'm surprised.
If you took a poll, asking the range you put a micro-limits player on after limp-minraise, I'd expect it to be heavily weighted to AA/KK.
A lot of responses here are limited to playing their hand (FLOPPED A SET) and not thinking about what villain has.
That doesn't necessarily mean folding is correct, but people need to think beyond just what we have.

"Chance of an overset is 1/100" is incorrect because you're ignoring action.
Suppose you are 1000BB deep and someone playing tight open-shoves. You have QQ and are way ahead of a random hand. Do you reason "There's only 1% chance he has AA/KK, so I have to call this" ?
You can't rely on blind percentages and disregard action. Most of the time you should never worry about oversets because most of the time you can never narrow villain's range to a single (or pair) of pocket pairs, but you should always be thinking about what kind of range villain has.

edit:
OP's hand is very different from a "typical" problem where hero calls a standard PFR with something like 55, and (eventually) faces a shove on a board of 5 T Q. In the 'typical' scenario, villain's range is so wide that your set is near the very top. In OP's hand, villain's range is far better defined because of the unique preflop action, so a blind "we have a set, shove" isn't appropriate.

[Genz]

You're toast. On this limit, that line is a bigger set, because in my experience, they take the preflop line exclusively with AA, KK. And I know what Harrington says. I probably call though and hope that he doesn't know much about bet sizing so I can fill up and don't have to fold my set and get flamed on 2p2 although it's pretty obvious in this case that my bottom set isn't good.

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
You're toast. On this limit, that line is a bigger set, because in my experience, they take the preflop line exclusively with AA, KK. And I know what Harrington says. I probably call though and hope that he doesn't know much about bet sizing so I can fill up and don't have to fold my set and get flamed on 2p2 although it's pretty obvious in this case that my bottom set isn't good.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we're already behind, filling up on the river doesn't do us much good . . .

as for the hand, we're a slight favorite vs AA/KK/AK so let's get it in asap