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#11
06-16-2007, 12:13 AM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
[ QUOTE ]
call first river bet. i'd rather fold there than raise. it's a fold to the river 3-bet, but whatever, call. [/ QUOTE ] i agree with just calling the river bet, but the rest of this post is pretty ridiculous 
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#12
06-16-2007, 01:09 AM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
i don't care? he has a 3. you can never have worse than AA here.
what do you beat? you already beat ~nothing when he donks the river. but then you raise anyway, and he 3-bets. if you say you should just call the first river bet it's because you believe he has 3x somewhat often. do you not believe that even more after he 3-bets your raise? ONE BET BIG POT BLAH BLAH BLAH you beat nothing. did he not reraise AA preflop? did he bet/3-bet 99 on the T33 flop and miraculously slowdown on the turn and then donk the river and 3-bet your raise? does he not realize AA beats his JT on this river? i mean, give me an estimate for how often you think he's playing completely out of his ass, because that's how often you win. i doubt it's 5%. i think you win maybe 1%? but like i have started saying, it doesn't matter. do the math if you win this say 2% of the time, and calling doesn't cost much.
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#13
06-16-2007, 02:17 AM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
well,instead of thinking to fold the 3 bet, why dont you just call the original bet from the raiser?
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#14
06-16-2007, 02:51 AM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
he has a T and no clue or an overpair to the T so much of the time at this limit.
i agree tho we shouldnt be raising the river the first time
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#15
06-16-2007, 10:06 AM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
[ QUOTE ]
if he does have JJ+ then his line until the river is fine [/ QUOTE ] No it's not [ QUOTE ] raise the river first time round and I dont even think its as close as it is being made out to be. Lots of crazies at 25c/50c. [/ QUOTE ] Assuming an unknown opponent is a maniac spewtard who would play 88 this way and "value" raising based on that assumption is a gross error at any limit. [ QUOTE ] you beat nothing. did he not reraise AA preflop? did he bet/3-bet 99 on the T33 flop and miraculously slowdown on the turn and then donk the river and 3-bet your raise? does he not realize AA beats his JT on this river? i mean, give me an estimate for how often you think he's playing completely out of his ass, because that's how often you win. [/ QUOTE ] QFT
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#16
06-16-2007, 12:14 PM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
[ QUOTE ]
i don't care? he has a 3. you can never have worse than AA here. what do you beat? you already beat ~nothing when he donks the river. but then you raise anyway, and he 3-bets. if you say you should just call the first river bet it's because you believe he has 3x somewhat often. do you not believe that even more after he 3-bets your raise? ONE BET BIG POT BLAH BLAH BLAH you beat nothing. did he not reraise AA preflop? did he bet/3-bet 99 on the T33 flop and miraculously slowdown on the turn and then donk the river and 3-bet your raise? does he not realize AA beats his JT on this river? i mean, give me an estimate for how often you think he's playing completely out of his ass, because that's how often you win. i doubt it's 5%. i think you win maybe 1%? but like i have started saying, it doesn't matter. do the math if you win this say 2% of the time, and calling doesn't cost much. [/ QUOTE ] god I love this post!!!! ty sir [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#17
06-16-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
So who are the pokertracker numbers for? I think that miles is underestimating the times you win in any case. Yes his most like hand is a 3, but he has an overpair or a ten way more then enough times to call the 3bet. I do agree that I would not raise the river.
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#18
06-16-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
[ QUOTE ]
i don't care? he has a 3. you can never have worse than AA here. what do you beat? you already beat ~nothing when he donks the river. but then you raise anyway, and he 3-bets. if you say you should just call the first river bet it's because you believe he has 3x somewhat often. do you not believe that even more after he 3-bets your raise? ONE BET BIG POT BLAH BLAH BLAH you beat nothing. did he not reraise AA preflop? did he bet/3-bet 99 on the T33 flop and miraculously slowdown on the turn and then donk the river and 3-bet your raise? does he not realize AA beats his JT on this river? i mean, give me an estimate for how often you think he's playing completely out of his ass, because that's how often you win. i doubt it's 5%. i think you win maybe 1%? but like i have started saying, it doesn't matter. do the math if you win this say 2% of the time, and calling doesn't cost much. [/ QUOTE ] I see what you are saying, but at these limits I think 2% is a big underestimation. I've had 1/2 players cap rivers with A-high (yes I know this is the maniac end of the spectrum) but why is it so hard to believe that a .25/.5 player goes crazy with a full house. I don't think that the turn 'just call' rules out AT, KT, JJ. Up until the river 3-bet I think that could easily have any of these hands and more. The river 3-bet obviously narrows his range to almost exactly quads if he is a thinking player, but at .25/.50 you can't assume that. That said I definately don't cap the river, but I still can't fold this for one bet with 2nd nuts.
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#19
06-16-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
oops, i didn't see the PT stats. assume i thought the stats given were for villain.
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#20
06-16-2007, 07:17 PM
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Re: some thin value questions about a powerhouse hand.
I thought the stats were for the "solid" overcaller (who is probably actually a showdown monkey "TAG" but nevermind that).
[ QUOTE ] I don't think that the turn 'just call' rules out AT, KT, JJ. Up until the river 3-bet I think that could easily have any of these hands and more. [/ QUOTE ] See, if i was looking at the river action in a vacuum there'd be a lot of hands I could give villain other than my current range of [3x, Tx, retardation]. But when you look at the other streets together, even with no reads and even realizing he might suck, nothing else makes sense. With AA-JJ, first he coldcalls preflop with several villains already in, indicating passive moron, which means not likely to go to 4 bets on the flop and then lead the turn into a cap. 99 doesn't make any sense because that would mean he went to war with 2nd pair, then slowed down with 9's full, then woke back up again on a river blank. Tx makes some sense as it's plausible he called with it pf and then overrated top pair (and a sort-of fh on the river) but as I said above Tx is the case as is 3x so that's not very reassuring. Also this hand is less likely for villain when "solid" overcaller calls 2 cold on the river. 3x makes perfect sense. If he has anything else he's a lunatic moron, which is basically what you're hoping for if you raise this river.
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