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#11
02-21-2006, 07:53 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
potting looks more like a real hand. pushing raises the suspicion factor to a degree that AA/KK will more likely be able to muster the balls make a call. if i had a set or the nuts here i would often push for this reason. (i realize this is exploitable, but not by that many players).
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#13
02-21-2006, 08:04 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
basically, i think check-raising with QQ-AA becomes a more attractive option for villain the larger our bet is. if villain is passive and his check-raising frequency remains unchanged and close to 0 from $400->$1000, then a pot looks good so long as our folding equity vs. the overpairs in his range increases sufficiently to offset the bigger bet (because a larger bet will also fold out the few draws he has in his range). i question whether folding equity changes at all from $400/500->$1000 and i think most opponents *will* start check-raising more the larger our bet gets, in which case we must call and invest big monies on the turn (that sucks!). i really think the best play is to check, though. not sure this villain as described is going to fold often enough to make any bet better than a chk.
hotpants: betting pot is better than shoving for many reasons, not least of which is because our folding equity doesn't increase enough to make a shove better on its own and that % of the time villain just calls on the turn we can save money by checking behind unimproved on the river (since it is unlikely he will fold). maybe i am wrong!
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#14
02-21-2006, 08:11 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
[ QUOTE ]
potting looks more like a real hand. pushing raises the suspicion factor to a degree that AA/KK will more likely be able to muster the balls make a call. if i had a set or the nuts here i would often push for this reason. (i realize this is exploitable, but not by that many players). [/ QUOTE ] I think pushing here makes it look more like a set or a 7 scared of the (better) str draw and flush draw. And there are certainly some disgusting river cards I would rather not vomit on.
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#16
02-21-2006, 08:17 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think pushing here makes it look more like a set or a 7 scared of the (better) str draw and flush draw [/ QUOTE ] no. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think villain is capable of giving you credit for either of those after you had raised his flop bet and pushed turn on him on this disgusting board (more often I should say)? As you said yourself, if you DID have a set you would probably push here. Edit: Also, 2 pair hands?
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#17
02-21-2006, 08:21 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
there aren't many 7s in hero's hand range.
villain is just going to think, 'hmm.. that is a very suspicious bet.. methinks the odds i win this are pretty good! call!' random donkey. anyways, does folding equity increase ENOUGH with a shove to make it better than a $1k? when he doesn't c/r us we save big monies!
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#19
02-21-2006, 08:47 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
[ QUOTE ]
I like a turn check also. To those advocating betting the turn, please provide your reasoning for doing so. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i think he has an overpair some of the time, and spades the rest of the time. im pretty sure he 3 bets anything better than 2pair OOP. [/ QUOTE ] According to FSU, he either has overpair or spades. Vs spades we don't want to give free card, vs KK/AA we are only 23% and QQ has us at 14% to improve. I do think we have good fold equity vs an overpair on this board though, and when you weigh his range between spades and overpairs its enough to where it becomes +EV to bet. My preferred bet here is to push because I think certain villains are capable of giving me more credit for set/str8/2pair/ and certain bad villains may have a hard time calling for more money. I do know which is more likely for this villain. There are also disgusting river cards I would rather not have to vomit on, as I said. Hero hasn't been getting out of line and I think its overall a good spot for a push.
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#20
02-21-2006, 08:48 PM
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Re: turn options on a weird board.
[ QUOTE ]
To those advocating betting the turn, please provide your reasoning for doing so. [/ QUOTE ] i want aa/kk to fold and/or i want draws to pay. great spot for some 2-way action! also, raising that flop and checking behind on turn allows opponent to play too well as that is so transparent. raise flop/bet turn appears expert here to me. lastly, calling on the flop is an ok line too - but since we raised...
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