River Spot

[rafiki]

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i can't see too many worse hands here calling, though you might see something occasionally, especially against some of the showdown monkeys.. if i'm betting i'm betting to fold out AK/AQ primarily and i'm not sure how many guys would here..

i like a check...

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I agree. I'm going to nit out here and just accept that we're so rarely being called by hands we beat that a bet just can't have much value.

[disjunction]

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Is this turn standard? I'd of thought this was a standard WA/WB?

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It's not standard for me but that's because I'm too passive on the turn. How many combos are we really WB here? I'm not sure what the call/donk is, but I can't be scared by it.

Plus I think a lot of it depends on your general playing style and shania on these boards.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Given his quick turn call, heres what I think his likely range is on the turn:

ATs,AJs/o,AKs/o,88,99.(I ignored those times he has the same hand as Jeff) Assuming this is also his range on the river when he checks, you should not bet the river since you are a 17-10 underdog to have the best hand.

However this guy sounds like the type that is competent enough to realize that he should bet the river with 88/99 which means you are likely a 10-8 favorite on the river which means bet/folding will show a positive expectation assuming this guy never check/raises the river with a lesser hand.

Thats a very thin value bet, but if you think this guy can also have ATo here and pay off on the river then a river bet is looking a lot hotter. With ATo in the villain's range, Jeff becomes a 2-1 favorite on the river assuming the villain donks the river with 99/88. Throw in another hand like KK and Jeff is a 11-4 favorite, and now bet/calling is more profitable than checking. However I dont think the villain can have KK since he called the turn so quickly and even if the villain has KK hes probably good enough to understand that he should fold the river on that board. It also may be dangerous to fully discount 88/99 here simply becuz he checked the river.

After all this babel heres my conclusion: If you feel you cant safely bet/fold here, then I would just check it down becuz you will seldom be a 2-1 favorite on the river on this final board after the action that has transpired vs a strong player. Since most of the time checking it down will make more money than bet/calling, you need a pretty good read that this guy will never check/raise the river with a lesser hand to take the "optimal" line of bet/folding.(Bet/folding is only the optimal line vs a straight foward opponent. If this guy will sometimes check/riase the river with the same hand or lesser hands than checking it down becomes the superior line)

[gaming_mouse]

FWIW he must be afraid that your turn raise was a semi-bluff that just hit, or at worst a two pair or set that likely won't fold, so I don't see you getting raised by AK or AQ here or bluffed off the best hand.

The more relevant question is: Does he pay off with any ace and with KK? A good player won't often pay off KK, maybe won't even payoff with a worse ace, but you never know. Also would help to know if he was 3 balling AJo, maybe even ATo -- ie, just how laggy are these tendencies. Depending on these things, I you may have a b/f.

[blindside]

turn is somewhat standard... he could be barrelling again with 88/99 as a semibluff hoping a better underpair to the A folds... and then check/fold the river u/i... turn raise is ok especially if you can throw in a lot of other hands like A9s or the like...

fwiw, everyone tends to call with AQ in the sb, even the laggy guys.. so i'm not sure if AJ/AT could be included... jeff probably could answer this better...

[ssmallz]

You said he was laggy, he could certainly have AJ, AT, or even KK if he can't get rid of it. AK is a possiblity too and I think its pretty close either way. I'd bet b/c you're likley to have the best hand more often than the worst. If he was tighter I think you can check and expect to see AK, AQ very often

[disjunction]

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You said he was laggy, he could certainly have AJ, AT, or even KK if he can't get rid of it.

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Shouldn't he fold KK, AT, AJ? He gets raised on the turn and then his opponent bets again on the river instead of taking the showdown. What can he beat?

[ssmallz]

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You said he was laggy, he could certainly have AJ, AT, or even KK if he can't get rid of it.

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Shouldn't he fold KK, AT, AJ? He gets raised on the turn and then his opponent bets again on the river instead of taking the showdown. What can he beat?

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Of course he should fold and if people did all the things they should do, we wouldn't make any money. He might be the type of guy who can't get rid of TP for 1 more bb on the river b/c his opponent might be bluffing. I don't expect KK to call all the time but AJ and AT def will given the description of our oppponent.

[daveT]

I like a bet here, but I don't expect to get paid that often.

Thin, but strategically sound.

[Nyquiz]

Did we all just skip over the part where he said "a strong pro" and move onto "with laggy tendencies"? This means his range is any pair probably 66+ and AJ+. I agree that I think a bet is in order here, but I think its fair to say we can safely fold to a 3 town.

The fact that he is "pro" would lead me to believe that he lays down AT on the turn, and keeps playing with AJ+, a set (less likely), and an OESD (pocket pair). With almost every damn middle card on the board it is a thin value bet for the range I put him on and a must fold to a river raise if i end up betting.