A big straight flush draw vs a LAG OOP, 2500 NL (lots of hands inside)

[Eagles]

Adanthar,
I think hand 2 is played pretty badly I mean just bet and let him keep throwing money in with Top pair.

As for the hand the river is a clear check this guy isnt folding Qx or jx. If he bets... its close I either c/c or c/f. This guy seems dumb enough to call a c/r with a lot of hands.

[Mench]

i love MLGs line. if he missed hes definatly betting and cant stand a cr. if he v bets thin he cant stand a cr.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
Adanthar,
I think hand 2 is played pretty badly I mean just bet and let him keep throwing money in with Top pair.

As for the hand the river is a clear check this guy isnt folding Qx or jx. If he bets... its close I either c/c or c/f. This guy seems dumb enough to call a c/r with a lot of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we all agree that betting out here is pointless.

I have to lean toward c/c here. I see all the merits to c/ring; however, this guy doesn't seem like a rational thinking human being and may call you down with a very wide range that beats you.

Barry

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an awesome place to cr all-in. seems like he rarely to never has a boat...he'll bluff a lot if you check, he'll v-bet too wide if you check but he wont call a cr without exactly QJ/JT. not to mention he's already seen you try to be tricky with a monster and you can definitely have J3/JT/QJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this except that every hand we've been shown shows him not folding a weak hand. I mean he could easily be calling super retardedly light, and the chance of that makes this go from awesome to awful IMHO.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Adanthar,
I think hand 2 is played pretty badly I mean just bet and let him keep throwing money in with Top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I forgot another hand vs. him. I raise AK, he calls in like a 4 way pot, flop KQ9 2 clubs, I bet he calls (HU), turn something, I bet some more, he instamucks before I put the chips in. So basically, I don't think he's gonna float me any more but he'll definitely stab at weakness a lot.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely fire another 1100.

[/ QUOTE ]

[shaundeeb]

you make my hand sound soo much worse lol I think I tanked for 10 seconds before shoving.

[Todd Terry]

Check/Fold. You're talking about bluffing off 1/4 or more of your stack into someone who has so many chips he's not going to sweat a call if he has anything at all. I don't think you can determine his hand based on the previous action with any degree of precision.

I would checkraise on the flop here, probably all in, you absolutely want to get all your chips in on the flop. If you check, if he's a loose player he bets the flop here 90% of the time.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/Fold. You're talking about bluffing off 1/4 or more of your stack into someone who has so many chips he's not going to sweat a call if he has anything at all. I don't think you can determine his hand based on the previous action with any degree of precision.



[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with check/fold here. At this spot, we don't look at our own hand here but focus on villian - Villain played the hand very passively, call,call... but in his head, we bet, bet and bet. He has to put us on something at the river.

Never check this river. The question is - what is a perfect amount to bet at the river in relationship to our stack/pot size to represent a value bet and also protect us from being bluffed...

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Adanthar,
I think hand 2 is played pretty badly I mean just bet and let him keep throwing money in with Top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I forgot another hand vs. him. I raise AK, he calls in like a 4 way pot, flop KQ9 2 clubs, I bet he calls (HU), turn something, I bet some more, he instamucks before I put the chips in. So basically, I don't think he's gonna float me any more but he'll definitely stab at weakness a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like MLG's line. I think all of the reads and info given kind of push us toward this.

If we check, he probably bets and our hand is not strong enough to pick off a bluff, unless we are God and some of his bluffs will be stronger hands (A9, Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). It's not clear whether he would check behind with something like KT which is the only hand I can see him not sometimes not raising on that board agaisnt a BB donker.

If we bet, he generally folds air, but may sometimes raise and probably doesn't fold any made hand. He probably folds hands that split but as I said, I'm not sure how he's got here with K8s or worse. Maybe he has and folds 97s. Maybe he doesn't raise 99 pf. Maybe he's really stubborn with a lower PP. Basically, I just don't see him having any of these hands. Betting is bad because there are so few better hands in his range in his range that he can fold.

Thus check-raising appears good and I think the fact that he is thinking hand-reader who has seen us move in with the nuts on the river is good for us. There's a big difference between calling 2k with KT and calling a river check-raise shove with the same hand and while I see Noah's point that the guy may simply not make the laydown, we do look really strong and the last time we looked this strong on the river, we had quads.

However, there are two fairly obvious problems with a river check-raise. Firstly, the pot is 4k ish and we have 8k ish behind. Villain has a mountain of chips. How much will he bet? If he makes a 2/3 pot bet, this isn't going to generate much FE for us when we shove and we may not fold KT, 9T etc (and of course there's the times that his hand is stronger than this).

Secondly, even if he bets 2k, he still seems like the type to call unless it makes a really big dent on his stack. If a 'mountain' of chips is actually 20-30k, he probably folds his weaker made hands. If it's 30K+, he probably doesn't.

I still think checking the turn is better if he stabs at weakness.