NL25 FR: 2 AK hands facing aggression.. help!

[roll]

Excellent post.

Can you explain why I shouldn't be shoving the flop as a 45/55 dog given the amount of money thats already went into the pot?

44, TT - 3 ways each
KQs - 1 way (hearts)
AA - 1 way
AT - 6 ways (if you think he would play ATo this way)
AK - 6 ways
AQ - 8 ways

If he has 44, TT, AA I'm toast and lose 17.50 by shoving
(7)

If he has QKs he has 12 outs twice, if he has AK we split,
so I gain half the current pot (7.50)
(7)

If he has AT i outdraw whenever I hit a king, 3 outs twice, 6/45 = 1/7.5 times. So I make 15 + 17.50 = 32.50 once and lose 17.50 6.5 times (113.75), which is about -10.50 on average
(6)

If he has AQ he outdraws me with a queen 1/7.5 times, so I make 32.50 6.5 times (208) and lose 17.50 once, profiting 190.50 / 7.5 = about 25 on average
(8)

So the final EV equation for shoving looks like:

EV(Shove) = (7)*(-17.50) + (7)*(7.5) + (6)*(-10.50) + (8)*(25) = -122.50 + 52.50 + -63.00 + 200 = -185.50 + 252.50 = 67
67 averaged over 7 + 7 + 6 + 8 = 28 scenarios = 67/28 = $2.40 profit on average

So, given this range, shoving is better than folding right? Correct me if my math is wrong.

[RyanCMU]

Im sure your math is fine, and you make good points...Which are all valid, and given the breakdown is correct in that a shove is right...

I think he range is just weighted with likely hood (not possible combos or % chance of each holding, but likelihood based on the way he has played the hand) to be weighted more towards the stronger end of his range then the hands that we beat...

But Like I said its very close, and if I were playing the hand and not just analyzing it afterwards, I shove every time...

Its one of those things where in the moment shoving is just done because it feels right and In all likelyhood shoving is the best play probably....

However my main point with my posts was to just show mainly that calling is bad and that its close to being a fold sometimes much closer then people really think...

But yea, shoving is fine and if i were playing the hand i would have shoved and then afterwards thought about the validity of folding.

edit: Yea also read my second post about if we can just a few of those hands to his possible range or have any type of previous hand or read that is bad or spews sometimes, then shoving becomes overwhelming correct and folding can't really be consdiered...