3/6 do you guys value bet here? - Page 2

xorbie · #11 06-08-2007, 05:46 PM

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ok this makes no sense to me at all. yall say i should have a wide range here. given this board, a wide range means that i should be simply bluffing bc not much will connect with this board. for the bluff to be profitable i need ppl to fold enough.

sooooooo, if they are folding enough for bluffing to be profitable, wtf should i bet my monsters?

fwiw, i am always betting here except when my image is [censored] but im fairly sure my opponents dont know this or dont care meaning they arent gonna play back at me very often.

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this sorta shows a fundamental misunderstanding of basic game theoretic principles :-/

Victor · #12 06-08-2007, 05:51 PM

it would if my opponents were capable of recognizing such tendencies.

The Funky Llama · #13 06-08-2007, 05:54 PM

vic, for a bluff to have a postiive expectation, your opponents only need to fold x% of the time (depending on your bet size and your equity if called).

X may very well be a low number like 20%. If your opponents are only folding 20%, a value bet would obviously be profitable.

So just because a bluff has a positive expectation it does not mean that a value bet will not.

soah · #14 06-08-2007, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ok this makes no sense to me at all. yall say i should have a wide range here. given this board, a wide range means that i should be simply bluffing bc not much will connect with this board. for the bluff to be profitable i need ppl to fold enough.

sooooooo, if they are folding enough for bluffing to be profitable, wtf should i bet my monsters?

fwiw, i am always betting here except when my image is [censored] but im fairly sure my opponents dont know this or dont care meaning they arent gonna play back at me very often.

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they probably don't have anything here and you're not going to make a lot of money by checking... the pfr and the next guy both declined their chance to bluff at this pot, so sb is the only one that can really take a stab at it on the turn, but you also have to consider that sb is the only one that might have a pair here and he won't fold it to your bet and he might even raise you with not much at all

Cyclosarin · #15 06-08-2007, 06:12 PM

Raise PF sometimes, if you just call you really should bet that flop. As you say bet more on the Turn and I'd bet around 150 on the River.

Victor · #16 06-08-2007, 06:19 PM

"they probably don't have anything here "

agreed. but they may pick up a pair on the turn. everyone is saying that im gonna get called super light on the flop. soooooo, why wont i get looked up super light on the turn if someone pairs up. theres a good chance someone will pair up given all the cards out there.

soah · #17 06-08-2007, 06:24 PM

if you're gonna do it that way then you need to make a solid bet on the turn

if you're expecting them to pair up and bet out then you probably only make a small amount of money on the hand because once you call their turn bet they realize you have them beat

if you had bet the flop then if they do happen to have something then they stand to lose a big pot because they can't realize you have a huge hand

Victor · #18 06-08-2007, 06:28 PM

"if you had bet the flop then if they do happen to have something then they stand to lose a big pot because they can't realize you have a huge hand "

given the board tho, its seems very unlikely anyone can have a decent enough hand to play a big pot. everyone is telling me otherwise but i just dont see it.

Cyclosarin · #19 06-08-2007, 06:30 PM

Alot of people will go into "call down" mode for "Pot Control" in a hand like this so I'd say you can easily bet all 3 streets and expect a decent Q to call all 3 streets and for an over pair to CR the turn or flop. You don't have to have a 6 to bet that hand on the button.