7k Post: Retooling how you think about sample sizes (tl;dr-too mathy)

[Absolution]

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1a) You are on the button with ATo and an unknown MP (second to act out of 6 players) raises. Do you 3-bet or fold?


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Fold. At micro 6-max, the average opponent will have ATo beat to 3 outs or less most of the time. I generally start with AJs against unknowns.

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1b) You’re in your 5th orbit on the button. The table has been playing somewhat tight. MP with stats of 20/10 raises and it’s folded to you. You have ATo. Do you 3-bet or fold?


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Without a post-flop read I'm letting this go as well because I would think a nit is going to hold on to his better than average hands too tightly. If I saw this guy playing as weak post-flop as he does pre-flop I might raise as a steal attempt. In that case I'm relying on him being predictable and weak tight post-flop so that I can get him to fold on the flop or turn.

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1c) You are on the button with ATo. You’ve been multitabling and you haven’t really been noticing MP’s play in particular, but you have noticed the table has been generally tight and aggressive. He raises and it’s folded to you. Your HUD reads 25/20/3 after 60 hands. Do you 3-bet or fold?


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Now I raise for sure because he's overaggressive. I expect him to overplay post-flop and I aim to get to showdown quite often with hands like these unless he starts to adjust. I'm always on the look out for these guys with aggression factors of 3 or over.

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2a) You are in the SB with A8s. Unknown button open-raises. Do you 3-bet or fold?


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Fold for the same reason as 1a.

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2b) You are in the small blind with A8s. The game has been quite LAGgy in 50 or so hands that you’ve been here. If anyone is paying attention, you also have a solid image because you’ve been taking down pots mostly uncontested, and the hands you have shown have all been quite strong. Button open-raises. He has been quite active, over-limping quite often and never open-limping. The only hand you remember is the one where he raised 77 UTG.


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This seems like a standard raise in 6-max. You likely have an equity edge and can use your image to show a lot of strength here. I probably don't go much lower than this though without a better read.

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2c) You are in the SB with A8s. Everyone folds to the button who raises. You’ve been at the table for 4 orbits, and you can remember that he has open-limped in late position once and open-raised from the button once before, which went uncontested by you and the big blind. Do you 3-bet or fold?


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Fold. If a guy is going to open limp in late position I'm going to assume for now that he is loose and passive. I would want a few more orbits to get a better read.

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3a) You open raise from MP and get 3-bet by an unknown SB. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?


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I'm only capping my premium hands and I'm calling with the rest for the same reasons as in 1a and 2a.

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3b) You open raise from MP and get 3-bet by the small blind. You’ve been at the table for about 30 hands, and have raised 5-6 of them. This is the first time he has 3-bet. You’ve seen this player coldcall raises (not necessarily yours) 3-4 times and he has done a lot of check-calling and check-folding. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?


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Same answer as in 3a.

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3c) You open-raise from MP and get 3-bet by (you guessed it) SB. SB has been a pretty active and aggressive player in the three orbits you’ve been at the table. He has open-raised a couple times, iso-raised a limper once, and this is the second time you’ve seen him 3-bet. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?


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Now you have your 6-max overaggressive player. In 3-orbits he's been way too active to be a good TAG. He's going to be 3-betting weird things like A3o and QJo I'm guessing as well as all pp. I'm good to cap any pp I raised with here, but I'm generally going to stick to the good aces (maybe AJs+) for now until I see what kind of hands he's doing this with.

[Aaron W.]

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Nice post, Aaron, but I would like to add:
The PT/PAHUD sample-sizes might not be big, but they are just the best estimates in order to make your decision, b/c we dont have any further information - online. (The "filtration" of information is giving us no more input.)

However, to analyze a hand, theoretically, we can in a first step analyze the hand regarding only the first (and best) estimate of the PAHUD stats.
In a 2nd attempt, one could add some hands in a given "confidence interval", and giving them lower weight, then analyze the equity, and so on.

But, anyways, the PAHUD stats are just the best estimate. We cant know any better.

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It's not clear that the PAHUD stats are the "best" estimate. For example, after a single orbit, it's not uncommon to see someone with 60/40 stats. Does that mean you should assume they're just a hyperLAG and 3-bet them with K8s? The point of this post was to give you tools to help you analyze how much weight you should put in this information. If 60/40 after 5 hands is insufficient to draw any reasonable conclusions, then you can just throw it out and skip that step.

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And regarding the model of Poker Players: that would be a nice project to start with - anyways Im already trolling I guess [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] .

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I think all you need to start is a big database and someone with skill in making a database query to pick out everyone's ASBs. Then from the data you get from there, you can begin to construct an empirical model instead of an intuitive one.

[unterfish]

Quote:
And regarding the model of Poker Players: that would be a nice project to start with - anyways Im already trolling I guess .

I think all you need to start is a big database and someone with skill in making a database query to pick out everyone's ASBs. Then from the data you get from there, you can begin to construct an empirical model instead of an intuitive one.


Yes, you are right. But are you willing to do one.
Lets do it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: The first half was lost for some reason. But if you want to... lets do it! And Im serious!

[Aaron W.]

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Quote:
And regarding the model of Poker Players: that would be a nice project to start with - anyways Im already trolling I guess .

I think all you need to start is a big database and someone with skill in making a database query to pick out everyone's ASBs. Then from the data you get from there, you can begin to construct an empirical model instead of an intuitive one.


Yes, you are right. But are you willing to do one.
Lets do it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: The first half was lost for some reason. But if you want to... lets do it! And Im serious!

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I'm kind of useless in the application side of this. I guess I'm just a theoretician.

I don't have a big database. I have less than 15000 hands in the one I've been using for the last 6-7 months, and everything else is older and probably not as helpful. I also don't have the programming knowledge to mine the data.

It's much like another programming project that I've dreamed up (the "next street equity" calculator). I think it would be great analysis tool, but I'm severely lacking in the skills to implement it, so it remains undone.

[Absolution]

I have about 200K at short-handed micro, mostly at 0.5/1, in a custom database. I could plot a histogram of ASB I suppose over this data. Maybe I'll look into it tonight. The only problem is that this is over the last year or so. I think the games have changed substantially over the last year.

[Aaron W.]

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I have about 200K at short-handed micro, mostly at 0.5/1, in a custom database. I could plot a histogram of ASB I suppose over this data. Maybe I'll look into it tonight. The only problem is that this is over the last year or so. I think the games have changed substantially over the last year.

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Assuming you play regularly, this would mean you have a 100k database over approximately the last 6 months. If you wanted to do a time analysis, you could break it into two halves and see if there is a significant difference between the two. Actually, a better breaking point would be when the Unlawful Gambling Act took effect. I don't even remember when that was... 8 months ago?