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#11
06-08-2007, 02:07 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
It's more in response to the threads popping up lately talking about how sick-good AJ is and how he never loses a coinflip. [/ QUOTE ] But it still doesn't answer the question - is playing TT good here? how many times such play is profitable? 
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#12
06-08-2007, 02:25 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
About 50% of the time, apparently.
I typically don't like to imply that after hours of two people playing live that I could understand their reads better by simply reading a summarized hand history. If it wasn't read based, it was simply luck. If it was simply luck, then he runs hotter than any man in poker. So I'm going to assume he had a reason to believe this to be a good play.
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#13
06-08-2007, 02:33 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
But it still doesn't answer the question - is playing TT good here? how many times such play is profitable? [/ QUOTE ] IMO it's a very very marginal play by Alex. The re-raise to 3800 is fine, but once Paul puts in 1/2 his stack on the 3rd bet, Alex has to know Paul is not messing around. Paul hadn't played a hand in an hour so best case scenario for Alex is that he's racing vs. AK, or he's dominated w/ a higher pair. Alex's fold equity is exactly 0, so I'm not quite sure what he was thinking. I'm not sure exaclty how deep Alex was a the time, if he had 60k or more then it's a bit less marginal. Still not a good play vs. someone who hasn't played a hand in over an hour.
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#14
06-08-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But it still doesn't answer the question - is playing TT good here? how many times such play is profitable? [/ QUOTE ] IMO it's a very very marginal play by Alex. The re-raise to 3800 is fine, but once Paul puts in 1/2 his stack on the 3rd bet, Alex has to know Paul is not messing around. Paul hadn't played a hand in an hour so best case scenario for Alex is that he's racing vs. AK, or he's dominated w/ a higher pair. Alex's fold equity is exactly 0, so I'm not quite sure what he was thinking. I'm not sure exaclty how deep Alex was a the time, if he had 60k or more then it's a bit less marginal. Still not a good play vs. someone who hasn't played a hand in over an hour. [/ QUOTE ] If Paul's stack is 16500, Alex would risk 12700 to win 21650 on a 10-handed table, meaning he needs 36.97% equity to break even. TT vs JJ+/AK is 33.65% I'm no tournament expert so I might be wrong of course, but I would not be surprised if Paul's range when he makes it 8800 is wider than JJ+ and AK. If it is, Alex play would be good from a pure chips EV standpoint. Add AQ and his equity would be 40.11% for example. Other tournament specific considerations, I'm not qualified to comment on.
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#16
06-08-2007, 03:56 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] But it still doesn't answer the question - is playing TT good here? how many times such play is profitable? [/ QUOTE ] IMO it's a very very marginal play by Alex. The re-raise to 3800 is fine, but once Paul puts in 1/2 his stack on the 3rd bet, Alex has to know Paul is not messing around. Paul hadn't played a hand in an hour so best case scenario for Alex is that he's racing vs. AK, or he's dominated w/ a higher pair. Alex's fold equity is exactly 0, so I'm not quite sure what he was thinking. I'm not sure exaclty how deep Alex was a the time, if he had 60k or more then it's a bit less marginal. Still not a good play vs. someone who hasn't played a hand in over an hour. [/ QUOTE ] If Paul's stack is 16500, Alex would risk 12700 to win 21650 on a 10-handed table, meaning he needs 36.97% equity to break even. TT vs JJ+/AK is 33.65% I'm no tournament expert so I might be wrong of course, but I would not be surprised if Paul's range when he makes it 8800 is wider than JJ+ and AK. If it is, Alex play would be good from a pure chips EV standpoint. Add AQ and his equity would be 40.11% for example. Other tournament specific considerations, I'm not qualified to comment on. [/ QUOTE ] Cmon this is absurd. Obviously hes 4 betting AK/JJ, and there is always some chance he's messing around due to his image. It's freaking CO vs button and they aren't that deep. You don't have to be a loose cannon to get all your chips in here with AQs.
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#18
06-08-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
His first 3bet sucks that's all he did wrong this hand unless he thought it will induce a really wide 4bet shove from him. [/ QUOTE ] That's a great point. I think though, Paul really didn't want to race and thought raising half his stack would seem stronger than just jamming the 16k. Though Alex is smart enough to know that's what Paul is doing, thus might think Paul is much lighter than AK.
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#19
06-08-2007, 04:23 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
Bottom line: Alex and Paul are pretty good friends. Alex is always rooting for Paul's success, and vice versa. He was in a playful mood that day and he said to me "Everyone is going to think I'm a donk for that hand, and I don't care." LOL!
Also, his luckiness is only superceded by his genius [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] xoxo
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#20
06-08-2007, 04:25 PM
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Re: How does Alex Jacob do it you ask??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] But it still doesn't answer the question - is playing TT good here? how many times such play is profitable? [/ QUOTE ] IMO it's a very very marginal play by Alex. The re-raise to 3800 is fine, but once Paul puts in 1/2 his stack on the 3rd bet, Alex has to know Paul is not messing around. Paul hadn't played a hand in an hour so best case scenario for Alex is that he's racing vs. AK, or he's dominated w/ a higher pair. Alex's fold equity is exactly 0, so I'm not quite sure what he was thinking. I'm not sure exaclty how deep Alex was a the time, if he had 60k or more then it's a bit less marginal. Still not a good play vs. someone who hasn't played a hand in over an hour. [/ QUOTE ] If Paul's stack is 16500, Alex would risk 12700 to win 21650 on a 10-handed table, meaning he needs 36.97% equity to break even. TT vs JJ+/AK is 33.65% I'm no tournament expert so I might be wrong of course, but I would not be surprised if Paul's range when he makes it 8800 is wider than JJ+ and AK. If it is, Alex play would be good from a pure chips EV standpoint. Add AQ and his equity would be 40.11% for example. Other tournament specific considerations, I'm not qualified to comment on. [/ QUOTE ] Cmon this is absurd. Obviously hes 4 betting AK/JJ, and there is always some chance he's messing around due to his image. It's freaking CO vs button and they aren't that deep. You don't have to be a loose cannon to get all your chips in here with AQs. [/ QUOTE ] I think you misunderstood me. I was saying that the only way Alex play of shoving instead of folding is not profitable is if Paul's range after his 3-bet is JJ+/AK, not wider. If it IS wider, it is profitable for Alex. I also implied I believe Paul's range is wider. (Strictly talking chip EV) Edited for some clarity.
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