NL100 AK TPTK against donk

[jhill3535]

Isn't there a theorem that says that a turn Check Raise always beats 1 pair?

[effang]

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Isn't there a theorem that says that a turn Check Raise always beats 1 pair?

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there's also a theorem that says TPTK is good against 72 VPIP players. that's the thing, against these types of players, your variance increases significantly, but if they stay at the table long enough, so does your bankroll.

[Small Fry]

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I would base my decision on how agg and how intelligent the guy has been postflop. There's a difference between being loose, being aggressive, and being dumb. He check raised the turn after you fired two big shots - that's usually a strong hand.

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X2. I've seen a few guys play virtually ATC preflop and play well post. They get called non stop in situations like this because everyone assumes, based on preflop #'s that they're a total maniac. Answer the above and then make your decision, but I don't think it's an auto call.

[Stonewalled]

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I would base my decision on how agg and how intelligent the guy has been postflop. There's a difference between being loose, being aggressive, and being dumb. He check raised the turn after you fired two big shots - that's usually a strong hand.

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X2. I've seen a few guys play virtually ATC preflop and play well post. They get called non stop in situations like this because everyone assumes, based on preflop #'s that they're a total maniac. Answer the above and then make your decision, but I don't think it's an auto call.

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Okay, let's assume this guy is a good post-flop player. What do you put him on after the flop?

Wouldn't we expect him to play made hands strongly on the flop to protect against the flush, and to get paid off by those who think he's fos?

Wouldn't we also expect him to play a strong flush draw/straight draw combo (say 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) pretty fast on the flop?

We wouldn't expect him -- remember, we're assuming he's to be a good post-flop player here -- to call the flop with a gutshot, would we?

So, again, what do you put villain on that beats us, and why? Also, do you think he has that hand often enough (i.e., 2/3 of the time) to make a call by Hero incorrect?

(Fwiw, I think 2-pair made on the turn is the most likely hand Villain holds that beats Hero.)

[Small Fry]

Good point. Maybe "play well" is not a good choice of words. He plays well from the standpoint that when he makes a big hand it is fairly obvious his opponent is representing a decent hand too so he knows that based on his style he can push and get called. He'll make bad calls not getting the correct pot odds. If he plays ATC and plays decent then presumably he is playing for implied odds. In this hand he could have hit any one of the flop cards and yes, even have 9,7. The Hero raised preflop and then C-bet. Pretty standard and at this point hero has either a king, possibly a pair over 8's or nothing, good spot to call to see what he does on the turn. Villian could even have a big hand (set) on the flop and wait for turn for Hero to really show strength before raising. If hero has nothing on flop hard for him to call any real raise / push (say hero had A,Q) but on the turn hero defines his hand further, or at least appears to do so as he could be firing a second barrel. At this point villian either had a big hand on the flop, got lucky on the turn, is on a draw (with a pair possibly) or has nothing. So I just think you should give it a little thought before hitting the call button.

[Stonewalled]

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Good point. Maybe "play well" is not a good choice of words. He plays well from the standpoint that when he makes a big hand it is fairly obvious his opponent is representing a decent hand too so he knows that based on his style he can push and get called. He'll make bad calls not getting the correct pot odds. If he plays ATC and plays decent then presumably he is playing for implied odds. In this hand he could have hit any one of the flop cards and yes, even have 9,7. The Hero raised preflop and then C-bet. Pretty standard and at this point hero has either a king, possibly a pair over 8's or nothing, good spot to call to see what he does on the turn. Villian could even have a big hand (set) on the flop and wait for turn for Hero to really show strength before raising. If hero has nothing on flop hard for him to call any real raise / push (say hero had A,Q) but on the turn hero defines his hand further, or at least appears to do so as he could be firing a second barrel. At this point villian either had a big hand on the flop, got lucky on the turn, is on a draw (with a pair possibly) or has nothing. So I just think you should give it a little thought before hitting the call button.

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Thanks. I do get your and others' point about Hero's turn bet being an important part of this analysis, so forget my initial "insta-call" reaction -- it's probably closer than that. Much would obviously depend upon how Hero has been playing.

[RainFall]

I dont lay down much to anyone thats 32/20 or above..

[wallenborn]

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he knows that based on his style he can push and get called.

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Some maniacs push here with air, but they tend to lose their bankroll quickly, so you don't see them often, 'cause they don't live long. Maniacs who survive (at least for a while) make money in two ways:

1. Constant aggression. Last night i played against a 80/60 maniac on FTP who would raise almost every hand preflop and bet hard on the flop. This worked amazingly often. Once people started to play back at him, he would shut down on the turn, but his preflop/flop-aggression didn't change.

2. Pushing big hands and getting called. Another maniac, Stars this time. Three to a flush on the board. LP, who had been targeting the maniac recently, bets turn, maniac in the BB pushes for 3 pot sizes more. LP calls and shows two pair. Maniac takes huge pot with a flush.

This maniac here check-called the flop, which sets an alarm bell off in my head. Then he check-raises the turn all-in. Call me a nit, but i'm putting him on flopped 2 pair with ATC and fold. I'll get his chips later.