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#11
06-08-2007, 10:39 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
*smile* thank you. I've been running worse than 1.3 for my last 800hrs or so. more like 1.0, and I was around 1.6 for the first bit. I think its mostly variance, the increased rake is costing me about 0.1/hr as well, but it seems like the games have been trending tougher (slightly) as well, have you noticed this?
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#13
06-12-2007, 08:47 AM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
"I'm making $7 an hour my last 300 hours at 40-80."
Oops. Make that $33 an hour over my last 316 hours. Heh. -Michael
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#14
06-12-2007, 12:30 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm making $7 an hour my last 300 hours at 40-80." Oops. Make that $33 an hour over my last 316 hours. Heh. -Michael [/ QUOTE ] Beautiful, lol. I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Poker.
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#15
06-12-2007, 06:57 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
it seems like the games have been trending tougher (slightly) as well, have you noticed this? [/ QUOTE ] I would say I agree with this. The bad players have gotten better over time and there hasn't been a big influx of new players. I'm at 1 BB/hr. over the last year.
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#16
06-12-2007, 09:00 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm making $7 an hour my last 300 hours at 40-80." Oops. Make that $33 an hour over my last 316 hours. Heh. -Michael [/ QUOTE ] Yet there are still people who think 10k hands is statistically significant. (e.g. just check out all the 'Is Negreanu ever going to win again? threads)
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#17
06-13-2007, 12:56 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "I'm making $7 an hour my last 300 hours at 40-80." Oops. Make that $33 an hour over my last 316 hours. Heh. -Michael [/ QUOTE ] Yet there are still people who think 10k hands is statistically significant. (e.g. just check out all the 'Is Negreanu ever going to win again? threads) [/ QUOTE ] Are they wrong? Or better yet, how wrong are they? Isn't this a question of degrees? 10,000 hands isn't enough to know anything "for sure," but it is an indicator with some relative amount of strength, no?
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#19
06-13-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
Short answer: no Long answer: basically no [/ QUOTE ] What is the likelihood that a player who is a .5BB/hour loser over a million hands will be up (1BB, 1000BB, whatever, just up) after any given set of 10,000 hands? Math guys, can you help out here? 10%? 20%? 45%? What are the odds that a 1.5BB/hour winner will be down over 10,000 hands?
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#20
06-13-2007, 02:29 PM
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Re: LA Mid-Limit Hold\'em
meh, I googled for like 3 seconds and found this site: http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm
Play around with it some to get a feel. For instance, I put in that the current winrate is 1.5bb/100 (STD 16) and you have to lower your confidence interval all the way down to around 65% to eliminate the negative possibility. I'm certainly no stats guy, but assuming 1/2 of the other 35% is above, that still leaves you with around a 17.5% chance that you're actually a loser in the game.
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