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#14
06-06-2007, 07:17 PM
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Re: is this close?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] all in [/ QUOTE ] auw yuw cen eet bahbee [/ QUOTE ] You can't call. Ees too much. Scotty WIN! (we're all enormous dorks, you realize this, right?) 
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#15
06-06-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: is this close?
[ QUOTE ]
agree raising those hands is bad. i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui. [/ QUOTE ] How can you not c/c the river here? We've already invested a ton of bets. I see people pull this with Ax suited all the time.
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#16
06-06-2007, 07:50 PM
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Re: is this close?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] agree raising those hands is bad. i think it is close. if he caps, then yeah fold river ui. [/ QUOTE ] How can you not c/c the river here? We've already invested a ton of bets. I see people pull this with Ax suited all the time. [/ QUOTE ] rofl, liar. i'm starting a new thing on 2p2. YOU CAN'T JUST LIE. it comes from my personal life. i have a really fat friend who won't stop lying about hooking up with girls. well the problem is that no girl will come near the guy. so we made this statement into a way of life. if anyone ever just blatantly lies, we tell him. YOU CANT JUST [censored] LIE. SO STOP [censored] LYING.
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#17
06-06-2007, 08:18 PM
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Re: is this close?
[ QUOTE ]
hmmmm ok two followups: what should a reasonable villain's range be when he raises the turn? do you guys think a raise with bottom two is good here? do you ever raise with one pair here? what do we do on river if he caps? esp a board pairing river. [/ QUOTE ] We can argue all day about the exact # of hands you beat but what are you losing to? If I'm BB I beat you with 55 & that's it. edit - n/m 23 flopped the joint. Still a 3ball I think.
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#19
06-06-2007, 10:03 PM
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Re: is this close?
[ QUOTE ]
i 3bet here all day, and I'm a super puss [/ QUOTE ] If the BB is a tag than 3betting the turn may be giving too much action IMO. To give a simple illustration of what I am talking about I will tell you what my hand range will be if I raise the flop in that spot and call JBA's 3bet and still pop the turn. A4,A5,32,55. JBA is a 19-12 underdog against this range. Which means he should just call down once raised on the turn by most tags who play like me. Thank about it, this tag cant be overplaying a big ace cuz he wouldve raised preflop. He is very unlikely to have AT cuz he wouldve raised preflop. Also if the tag had just Ax, his most likely line on the flop would be to call in this small pot and hope you keep betting a worse hand. The tag is unlikely to have a hand like 5T cuz most tags would just fold the flop unless they felt that you had a high bluffing frequency in this spot. I also dont think its that likely that a tag will be overplaying a hand like 45 here but that's still a possibility. If you add 45 to the tags range JBA is still a 19-15 underdog once raised on the turn. Also, if you add 5T to the tags range along with 45, JBA now becomes a 24-19 favorite. However if you make the realistic assumption that the tag is always gonna cap when hes winning(32,55) and always call down when he's losing(A4,A5,45,5T) it is unclear whether JBA's turn 3bet is profitable even when he's a favorite to have the best hand. To figure out the profitability/loss of 3betting the turn against the range Ive talked about someone needs to do some simple math based on further assumptions which I'm too lazy to do right now. So I began by saying that 3betting the turn against a tag may be giving too much action. The potential profitability/loss of this play is very dependent on the our assumptions on how well this tag plays and on his specific hand range. Heres what I know for sure: If I were the tag villain in this hand 3betting the turn with 44 would be total spewage pure and simple cuz I will never have AT,5T,45 here. I will always have A4,A5,32,55. This range will never change cuz I am an ABC Rakeback bonus whoring tag robot who never tilts as I am not human. Against another tag who plays differently from this model, you may have a profitable 3bet. It all comes down to what range you put the tag on and then its just a basic math problem with a few probable assumptions in play. So JBA if you are wondering if your turn play is close, I think I have sufficiently answered your question. It is very close, and that much is not debatable. Whether you should 3bet the turn or not against the average tag is still up for debate.
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#20
06-06-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: is this close?
"what should a reasonable villain's range be when he raises the turn?"
As I said before I would only raise the turn here with A4,A5,55,32. I understand that when you bet/3bet the flop your most likely hand is two pair or better becuz if you had a strong ace you wouldve raised preflop. As an aside, I think if you had just an Ace you wouldve checked the flop to induce more action. With no history, it only makes sense to bet this flop with these following hands: two pair or better, a gutshot draw, 4x,5x, and a total bluff. When you 3bet the flop it may be true that you could be running a 3rd level rebluff since you know your opponent knows youre probably weak at this point which means he could be weak also, but youre most likely hand at this point is still 2pair or better since rebluffs are seldom a good idea cuz that requires putting someone on a thought which is not easy to do online. "do you guys think a raise with bottom two is good here?" Since your most likely hand is 2pair or better at this point, raisin the turn with a hand like 45 is spewage. "do you ever raise with one pair here?" Becuz I like money the answer is no. "what do we do on river if he caps?" If he caps the turn all you have is a crying calldown UI. If you improve to a boat its time to check/raise and if he 3bets the river youre back to a crying call situation if this guy plays logical.
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