Big draw on turn rr pot $200NL

[MychCumstien]

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If he's committed to his hand, he's pushing the rest in on the river always, right?

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Why does he always shove the river here? If a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls and he doesn't have one, I seriously doubt he shoves here.

[Novles]

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If he's committed to his hand, he's pushing the rest in on the river always, right?

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Why does he always shove the river here? If a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls and he doesn't have one, I seriously doubt he shoves here.

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My question was more of a follow-up to LJ's comment that he's committed to the hand. If he's not shoving a spade river, he's not committed, no?

[MychCumstien]

I don't see him shoving a spade river without a spade. That's moronic if he does.

[MasterLJ]

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If he's committed to his hand, he's pushing the rest in on the river always, right?

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Why does he always shove the river here? If a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls and he doesn't have one, I seriously doubt he shoves here.

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My question was more of a follow-up to LJ's comment that he's committed to the hand. If he's not shoving a spade river, he's not committed, no?

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He's committed to calling a turn push with any ace, and probably some worse hands (JJ-QQ, maybe 99, AJ+). You are getting 2 to 1 on your call which is slightly -EV. This is why calling is bad... it is push or fold and I lean towards folding without a read that air and underpairs make up 15-25%+ of his range here.

[Novles]

LJ,

Do you disagree w/ my stove calcs? What hands would you omit/insert?

[MasterLJ]

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LJ,

Do you disagree w/ my stove calcs? What hands would you omit/insert?

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Your calcs make it 1% +EV to call. I don't think this is optimizing profits. Pushing is way better than calling because you get the added equity of hands he will fold even getting nearly 3 to 1. Calling is the worst option imo because he will also hesitate to be all-in if a 4th spade comes on the river. The counter argument is that you don't need implied odds here... but again, that's read-centric.

Honestly, this all boils down to reads on the guy.

[Ellsworth T]

I'm curious as to what weight you place on villan's hand range given flop check. It's obvious that you guys think that his flop check gives the greatest weight to something in the range of AJish say 60% of the time?, but clearly there are times where villan has slowplayed set, overpair, misclick air etc. What weight do you give to these hands out of the remaining proportion of his range?

[Novles]

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LJ,

Do you disagree w/ my stove calcs? What hands would you omit/insert?

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Your calcs make it 1% +EV to call. I don't think this is optimizing profits. Pushing is way better than calling because you get the added equity of hands he will fold even getting nearly 3 to 1. Calling is the worst option imo because he will also hesitate to be all-in if a 4th spade comes on the river. The counter argument is that you don't need implied odds here... but again, that's read-centric.

Honestly, this all boils down to reads on the guy.

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If folding is 0EV, calling is slightly +EV(even if he never ever stacks off when we hit), and pushing is way better than calling, how can this be a fold? Sorry if I misinterpreted your post, but that's what I got out of it.

[MasterLJ]

Pushing provides some form of FE (albeit low, but certainly non-zero), plus either guarantees a decent pot or at least forces villain to get all of his money in (he can't escape on a 4th spade on the river). Folding and waiting for a better spot can never be bad here. Calling is 1% EV based on a calculated range which is subject to error probably significantly greater than +/- 1% equity.

[Novles]

Thanks for the responses all. I called turn and folded a brick river and he showed K6o [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].