180 Man Ballers: General Theoretical Question - Page 2

MJBuddy · #11 06-04-2007, 03:56 PM

My typical stance on bubble play is that I'd be completely willing to take a flip knowing that my fold equity is much higher and if I win the flip I will have the chips to go much deeper ITM. It also helps because people see you restealing with a lot of cards and you get less respect when you get a really strong hand UTG once ITM. Having AJ look you up when you push back with AK is the real stack builder once ITM.

Granted, I'm not entirely sure how relevant all this is to 180s in particular, but I imagine it's a universal ideal.

sledghammer · #12 06-04-2007, 11:27 PM

While a fold here is probably correct, you are thinking about the problem of unknowns correctly.

Let's say there are two types of players, tags(who make up 90% of the population in a 180 at this time and who will jam here 5%), and maniacs (10% of population, will jam here 25% of the time). If your unknown BB jams here, what is his range? Before he jams, he is 90% to be a tag, and 10% to be a maniac. After the jam, he is more likely to be a maniac:

(.10*.25)(.90*.05+.10*.25) = 35.7% chance he is a maniac, pushing 25% of his hands, 64.3% chance he is a tag, pushing 5%.

This is because after he jams, we have more information about his style, since maniacs jam here 5x as often as tags(according to our assumptions).

You can do EV calcs with those chances, they are only estimates though. I would think that the underlying proportion of maniacs at this stage of a 20/180 is much less than 10%.

MJBuddy · #13 06-05-2007, 12:31 AM

I think maniacs are a bit higher than 10% in general. Most of them weed out early and the ones who push their edges survive till the end, where I can see 10% being relatively correct.

All_In_Olly · #14 06-05-2007, 11:13 AM

One of the reasons I consistently fall at this stage of the 4/180 is that I don't adjust correctly and give some respect to the players still in the running.
(That and the fact that I'm nearing the end of my sixpack).

Readless and on the bubble, you've got to give some credit to the reraise and fold here IMO, though with AQ I'm probably calling.

View Poll Results: What's my plan ?
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Fire two barrels and give up	13	25.49%
eep firing to the end AK is quite a hand on that flop heads-up	3	5.88%
Something diffrent (please specify)	4	7.84%
I dunno but I would like to see the results	14	27.45%
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