100NL facing a river c/r

[Fly]

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how is his river play good when you're getting 3:1?

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Its good b/c he's "never" bluffing.

[yad]

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how is his river play good when you're getting 3:1?

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Its good b/c he's "never" bluffing.

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and because I often am. basically my play thus far is consistent with a spade draw, a mediocre to decent made hand like what I actually have, and diamonds. my bet sizing actually indicates it is much more likely to be one of the first two than the third (I don't care about bet sizing transparently at 100nl because people able to take advantage like in this hand are almost nonexistent).

obviously I am not folding diamonds if that's what i have, but I have diamonds less than 1/3 of the time here for sure. And all the early responses (before I posted results [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) said basically instafold AJ -- so that means I'm folding the vast majority of my range here.

going for the bluff c/r is way better than lead bluffing because i am never folding any made hand better than his to a river lead unless it's a big overbet. nor am i calling with worse. his hand has showdown value if i give up and check behind with a missed draw.

i agree with wildzer on most of what he is saying, except that i think him going for a c/r with a strong made hand is also pretty good. he gets an extra bet if i have a draw and decide to bluff, and he doesn't lose anything and may in fact gain if i have a made hand.

[Trident]

2 things:

1) FWIW, you don't have this decision to make if you raise his donkbet on the turn...

2) The only way he should c/r a strong made hand (diamonds or QT) on the river here is if you are going to bet all your TP type hands for value AND bluff your missed draws. If you aren't value betting your AJ and KJ type hands here I think he should lead the river with a made hand all day. It looks to you like there is enough money in the pot for him to bluff a busted spade draw, so he might as well value bet his disguised made hand. I honestly can't see a ton of hands on this river that you would bet for value everytime (except maybe AJ), so therefore I think the villain would be better off leading at the river when he makes.

[yad]

Trident,
I agree with both your points, though I think the conditions you outline in 2 are met (I am almost always bluffing my missed draws and value betting TP on this river at this level). whether he knows this or not is another question.