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#13
06-09-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: Hand vs Yourface
It is really easy too see how much harder it is for Wunderkind to realize any theoretical equity he has after that flop. There are numerous situations when he is going to make mistakes on turn and river and you arenīt.
You can take freecards he canīt. You can raise him somewhere, he canīt raise you.You can value bet he canīt. Hot and cold equity isnīt the answer in these types of situations.Pokerstoving postflop scenarios is so so overrated. I donīt say it is an super easy fold but i believe that very few players make a profit against a good opponent (and you are good arenīt you?)if they were to play this hand a 1000 times. 
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#14
06-09-2007, 03:15 PM
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Re: Hand vs Yourface
[ QUOTE ]
unless yourface indiscriminately bets all turns, you have the best hand and will find out for 1sb too often to fold. plus you do have outs against better hands. yourface can have Ax, K2s, 98o etc. [/ QUOTE ] I think the problem with the flop peel is that your hand looks like either A high or a weakish draw (K9ish). Yourface will probably have the good sense to bet all blank turns (8 or lower, plus board pairing cards) and check behind the "scare cards" except when he's betting for value. I think it's probably possible to make a teeny tiny profit peeling this flop if you play each street just about perfectly (not in the FTOP of sense, but in the consideration of hand ranges and betting patterns sense), but I don't think the extra amount of mental effort is worth it. I would just ditch this hand on this flop most of the time. This is a classic reverse implied odds hand. Your equity on this flop is less than 50% and you will be paying much more when behind than you will be collecting when ahead. The 2 BB of dead money in the pot give some incentive to continue, but not enough to make this more than a very marginal flop peel even if you play the hand well on all future streets.
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