150K gtd STARS -- DO YOU CALL?

[betgo]

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i dunno what types of hands u guys think ur gonna see turned up when u call.

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A small pp, Ax, a medium suited connector. Your hand is underrepresented, and villain would be stupid not to bluff the scary board.

[Bakes]

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I like as played. I don't see why you have to bet big on the flop with top pair. The flop bet seems standard. No point in building th pot on the turn with a medium strength hand, and the turn card is dangerous. It seems like a very easy call on the river. If you induced a bluff, good.

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fosho, espec re: flopbet

[luckychewy]

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i dunno what types of hands u guys think ur gonna see turned up when u call.

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A small pp, Ax, a medium suited connector. Your hand is underrepresented, and villain would be stupid not to bluff the scary board.

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as bad as the average tournament player is, i don't think they are peeling this flop w/ a small pair or Ax(given there is no fd). i guess 7x or a random gutshot is possible but this looks a lot more like Tx than anything else to me.

[curtains]

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I like as played. I don't see why you have to bet big on the flop with top pair. The flop bet seems standard. No point in building th pot on the turn with a medium strength hand, and the turn card is dangerous. It seems like a very easy call on the river. If you induced a bluff, good.

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I wouldn't say the flop bet is standard, seems like less than half the pot to me in a pot that's very crucial to the hero's stack.

[RobertJohn]

What hands would he bluff with on the river that he would forego betting on the turn given that you’ve raised UTG, bet < ½ the pot on the flop, and checked turn? With this board texture, if he were floating, he would probably be inclined to take it down on the turn given your weak sequence. The only busted draws that didn’t improve to a hand that he would probably showdown on the river with IP are two hearts (and he might have semi-bluffed that on the turn).

He would probably check behind on the turn with his weaker made hands (like KJ, AT, KQ, etc.) to induce bluffs and avoid your c/r (since you could easily have or represent the nut straight on the turn).

With the board pairing the middle card on the flop and another check from you, he bets ½ the pot.

Since he is probably rarely purely bluffing (since he would have most likely used the turn to take it down and the only wiffed draw is a backdoor flush), and most of the marginal made hands (or strong ones) he would have checked the turn with have improved to trips or filled up, and he has foregone checking down his weak top pair or turned Jack hands, I would assume this is probably not a bluff.

I think he would have to be bluffing too often in this spot than one can reasonably assume given that your equity is really low against the hands he might legitimately bet for value on this river (like AT-JT, AK, 98, 77, TT, and KQ or AQ [ maybe KJ some % of the time] - which doesn't include many weaker than yours).

He could possibly show you like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but isn't that stretching it a little?

I think having some kind of read and betting more on the flop or leading turn would have made your river decision a lot easier. Knowing if he’s capable of peeling with these weak backdoor hands on the flop that have become busted flushes on the river would also help your river call/fold decision.

[johnnyrocket]

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Im not sure why you didnt bet the turn. I can't really put him on AK, so I think you have the best hand, the best draw, or both.

As played, I think this is a bluff often enough to call, but its marginal at best.

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yea we really screwed up ne reads and stuff by checking the turn