Big draw gets a mixed blessing on the turn

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch* Push? Maybe call and check raise river? We might be behind but I dont see folding at any point to be +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. initially i wanted to call and see the river, but we are calling anyway. might as well get it in now.

[ThePlan]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($207.20)
MP ($87.70)
Hero ($208.45)
SB ($202)
BB ($245.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12.

Turn: ($41) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $75</font>, Hero calls $50.

River: ($191) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $150.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero (has 113 left) ...

[tarheeljks]

again, i probably can't lay this down, i'm just wondering if we can justify a fold. if he would slowplay 2p on the flop here i think we could. i call and make a note if he turns over a house.

[fitnessfreak]

this is tough because villian's likely range includes flushes and FH's only (maybe a straght or trips, but highly unlikely imo). you are ahead of a large number of flushes, but for some reason i feel bad about this hand.

i think its close between a shove and a fold on the turn.

[fitnessfreak]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($207.20)
MP ($87.70)
Hero ($208.45)
SB ($202)
BB ($245.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12.

Turn: ($41) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $75</font>, Hero calls $50.

River: ($191) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $150.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero (has 113 left) ...

[/ QUOTE ]

dont call the turn to fold the river.

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($207.20)
MP ($87.70)
Hero ($208.45)
SB ($202)
BB ($245.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12.

Turn: ($41) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $75</font>, Hero calls $50.

River: ($191) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $150.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero (has 113 left) ...

[/ QUOTE ]

dont call the turn to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tarheeljks]

if we say he slowplays 2p on flop
we lose to:
6 combos of AJ, 6 of JT, 1 combo KcQc, 3 combos AA, 3 combos TT (possibly, KcXc but i'm leaving it out)

we beat:

AxKc- 3 combos
AxQc- 3 combos
KJs/KJo- 8 combos
smaller flushes- 4 combos (didn't take them all just to tighten the range)
bluffs- 1 combo (arbitrary)

we need ~30% equity. even if we weight the range towards the hands that beat us we can still find a call but i think it's close.


if we assume he doesn't slowplay on the flop, we can more or less rule out fh(i think that in this scenario KcXc is a slightly larger chunk of his range). so now we are losing to KcQc, KcXc 9 combos and beating at least 14 (not including bluffs and smaller flushes). so obv we call here.

[dregal]

[ QUOTE ]


dont call the turn to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this especially b/c his river shove is &lt;PSB to us (we only have to be good ~30% of the time to make a call correct).

Something to kick around...it seems very unlikely (to me at least) that villian can have a FH here. Cant we assume that most semi-competent players will auto raise that flop with 2pr/set. The board texture is completely different than the other hand where villian slowplayed 2pr, so I don't know how much weight we should be giving that history.

Edit to add: Villian seems "semi-competent" from OP's description.

[ThePlan]

Yea, I called the turn with the intention of calling any river, unless it was another J or Kc or something crazy. He had J10 for the boat. I'm still not really sure we beat a lot with the turn CR, but its one of those hands that I don't think I can fold.

[ThePlan]

dregal, I thought the same thing. He slowplayed 2pair before, but that was a completely different situation really. It surprised me that he slowplayed 2pair on this kind of board.