55r FT bubble spot

[Soulman]

KQs is behind a lot, so I can't see that as correct (8% worse than 77/AJs vs a decent-ish range). Otherwise I think aejones' range is good.

Can you guys please stop referring to villain only by name, without giving any more info? I realize a lot of you play vs the same guys all the time and thus know how they play, but it would be good if you could include some info/stats.

[NoahSD]

I think 88 and AQo are close.... maybe even AJs.

Edit: After thinking for a second I think all of those are easy pushes, but nothing worse.

I'm with Noah. 88+ and AQo+ seem like a good range vs. a solid opponent. I don't think he's shoving A9- very often here.

Also, if I knew a damn thing about the guy (which it sounds like you do) that range might extend to include 77/88 and AJo/AJs.

[curtains]

Ok I gave up and looked up the antes. I never know what they are because they seem to change depending on the type of event. They are 400, so theoretically the pusher has about 8.5x the BB. Meanwhile the cutoff is sitting out so thatmeans hes first to act with 8.5x the BB from effectively 3 off the button.


Assuming the following assumptions:

1. All players call with the following hands: 77+,ATs+,AJo+, except the relatively shorter BB who calls with: 44+,A8s+,ATo+,KJs+. The cutoff always folds because they are sitting out.

2. The UTG raiser is looking for an edge of greater than 1/5th-1/6th of the size of the actual BB.

In the above case my calculations say the pusher should be raising with 19.5% of hands: which are Push hands:

22+,AKs,AQs,AJs,ATs,ATo+,A9s,A8s,A7s,A5s,A4s,KTo+, K8s+,QJo,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s

Against a range like that, we should call with the following from the SB, if we too want a minimum edge as described above: 44+,A9o+,A5s+,KQo,KJs+ (13.7%)


Ok, so some problems with this analysis are that I think it's possibly unlikely that UTG pushes as lightly as I have mentioned. In fact in reality I believe they will push tighter, because people aren't machines that always know exactly what to push and I think that in this spot would generally err on the somewhat tighter side.


If you give them the more standard range of:

66+,A9o+,A7s+,KQo,KTs+, then it becomes correct to call only with 77+, AJo+ and ATs+, which I believe is a reasonable range to start with, and maybe I'd throw out the worst 1-2 hands from that range because we have some strategical advantages that we will be risking if we make a marginal call here.

Also note that if their pushing range extends to a very reasonable 55+,A9o+,A7s+,KJo+,KTs+,QJs our calling range only goes up slightly to: 66+,AT+,KQs (on further reflection I believe this pushing range is much more realistic than the one above it, mainly due to the CO sitting out, but again I would fold the bottom part of this range for above mentioned reasons.)


Anyway from a pure theoretical sense, if people are playing as tightly as one would normally suspect, the pusher should be quite loose.

Also when I calculated it with the CO sitting in instead of sitting out, the pushing range plummetted from around 19% to 11%, so this also makes a giant difference.

Anyway the correct calling range probably runs pretty close to what most people in this thread are suggesting.


* Can we make a suggestion for people to always post antes? They are constantly changing based on the event and in these push/call situations they are of extreme importance, especially against a good player. Meanwhile I, and I'm sure many others, don't have the ante structures memorized. If the ante was 800, I would consider this about a 6.5x BB situation instead of 8.5x, the result of which drastically changes my range by perhaps close to 10% of hands and should easily do the same for another strong opponent.

[shaundeeb]

He's a sng player his shoving range is prob larger then the avg mtt player so thus I open my calling range to prob 66 and AJ+ I don't my KQ call here because the few times you have him dominated are great and you aren't that far behind Ax most people undervalue KQ PF and with such wide ranges KQ does better then most people realize.

[luckychewy]

missed this threads 2nd wind and didn't see your post curtains, which is awesome. ty. i will add antees in the future, i thought conveter had them but guess not.

at the time i thought 88+ aq+ were instashoves in my spot and i wouldn't have thought twice with these hands, 77/aj/kq i wasn't so sure, and i actually had 66 here. i thought it was marginal and after the fact i'm not so happy w/ my call since he has to be pushing pretty wide as you've shown. i guess it makes it better because he's good and as shaun said he's a sng player as well. results are boring, he has qq and i don't suckout(weird, i know).

thx for the posts all.

[g0lfa]

ive had the opportunity to play with Dry late in some big buyin tournaments and the dude is straight up SOLID. I put his shoving range at 77+, AJs+.. pick off shaundeeb, hes shoving 22+K9o+, i would tend to give dry more respect