A Concept I Don't Understand

[sethypooh21]

Against thinking opponents, c/c is better than C/R because on this board c/R looks FoSh. and you will get bluff/value-raised on the turn a whole lot here. I tend to fold this flop perhaps too much, especially if playing more than 4 tables because this is a tricky spot to play well.

[Ricks]

With the continuation bet your current pot odds are 5.5:1.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
Against thinking opponents, c/c is better than C/R because on this board c/R looks FoSh. and you will get bluff/value-raised on the turn a whole lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, what is it about the board texture of a J52r flop that makes a c/r so suspicious? It's fairly "peel friendly" & I think "thinking opponents" are firing 2nd barrells on the turn a ton when you C/C. Do you really bluff/value raise A/K high or whatever on turn bricks much after getting C/R'd?

[milesdyson]

i basically always fold unless i'm running really hot at the table, in which case i raise. i'd check call sometimes with hands like A4/A3 or QT w/ a bdfd and sometimes w/ TP planning to c/r turn.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to succeed at 5/T and above this is not a fold, that is for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

[imitation]

I think c/c is really horribly bad at least 85% of the time and just because some guy said it in a book doesn't mean it's true, he probably wrote it out thinking about some particular hand at the time where it made sense.

[milesdyson]

if the book were not mentioned and the question was posed, "you defend Q8o against a button stealer (~36 ATS) and the flop is J64r, what's your action?" you'd get a nearly unanimous response to c/f.

[StellarWind]

Calling is often a good option but it depends on the opponent. With J54 flop (backdoor straight) or Q7s matching a board card (backdoor flush) it would be a much easier call.

The key idea is that if you need to have something real to play this flop then you are too predictable. When the opener misses the flop and turn he will check behind and when he misses the river too he will fold. Floating here is actually an extension of the idea that you need to bluff sometimes to get your good hands paid. You are creating a reason why opener should often bluff again on the turn and/or call the river with ace-high no kicker.

The price for this "bluff" call is very low because while you may be wrong from an implied odds and outs perspective, you aren't very wrong. You are only giving up a little bit of EV each time you do it.

Of course you shouldn't routinely be accepting any negative EV when you bluff. If pot/implied odds and six pair outs were the complete EV story then OP would be correct and the flop call would in fact be wrong. But in HU pots there are almost always invisible sources of EV to supplement your obvious outs. Here are three:

1. Villain may take a free card on the turn. Now you have two draws at your six outs instead of just one.

2. Circumstances often arise that give you a +EV opportunity to bluff at the pot.

3. Sometimes no one bets again and it turns out Q-high is the best hand.

All of these extra sources of EV make up for the small deficit in implied odds and leave you with a slight profit. Note also that small blind size and rake do enter into this. The extra rake in low limit games may erase your profit margin in some cases.

Back at the beginning I mentioned that this play is opponent dependent. What type of opponents should you be folding against? Your opponent's preflop standards aren't actually very important unless they are really tight and apt to have a pocket pair. A J52r flop is a great equalizer and a sound starting hand doesn't really have much edge over the almost any-2 crowd.

Postflop play is the key and the opponent you need to be folding against is the indiscriminant LAG. Does he continuation bet the turn every last time? Is folding against his religion? Then he's going to pay and pay for these faults but not on this hand. His style is in the right place at the right time and all your invisible EV simply doesn't exist. This is simply a new version of the old rule that you don't bluff people who can't be bluffed. It's both futile and unnecessary because you are getting paid for your good hands anyway.

[Heisenb3rg]

Perfectly explained as always stellar wind.

Adding hands that can be very slightly -EV in itself (I wouldn't call this hand that), can actually be +EV for your entire distribution.

This happens when you change your distribution such that it causes your opponent to react differently. So while he may "counter" your peeling by betting more, making the hands you peel with slightly -EV, he's now left himself vulnerable to being bluff raised and value p0wned.

By you adding a few hands, he may always be 2 barreling because he thinks you "peel light" but in fact, you are still mostly strong and get payed off a lot more on your other hands.

If of course they wont adjust no matter what you do, then there is no point in doing that...
But a balanced optimal strategy would include a fair bit of light peels on a flop like this.

However, I personally think hyper agression is the way to go on a board like this, vs a button opener unless they are K high showdown bound, or super agro...

[vmacosta]

I usually c/f but sometimes I c/r air here (1/10?).

My c/c range is probably too narrow--like some A-hi/K-hi hands, some hands with both bdfd and bdsd, and top pair+.