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#11
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As soon as I posted this I realized that "no reads" wasn't exactly correct. I was at the table long enough to know that the villain wasn't a crazy aggro maniac, donkey, never gotten way out of line, etc.
He ended up showing: Qh Tc 8h 3c I'm a slight favorite on the flop: http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=8d+...%0AQh+Tc+8h+3c But on the turn no more: http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=8d+...%0AQh+Tc+8h+3c |
#12
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You picked up 3 more straight outs on the turn. Check-raise. [/ QUOTE ] But the deuce doesn't complete anything and doesn't give us a huge pot equity with our draw. So why raise when calling is +ev as well? Not like the villain is going "well I'm potting this deuce turn becuase seems like I'm still good and then umm well he raised I guess I must be beat after all I fold". Atleast he shouldn't be betting and then folding. No matter what he calls the flop with and then bets. [/ QUOTE ] I think your hand is well disguised, therefore, i see him potting the turn with a weak hand that knows that AA, KK, and other vulnerable hands aren't going to be able to call. He could be making this move with a pair of 10s and a small wrap as a semi-bluff. I also don't see much value in calling. If he does have 2pair, he's probably not gonna call off a bet when the board connects. I think You are 44% to win against a bare 2 pair, which I don't think he has, well at least not top two. I think c/r is the most efficient because I see him folding here quite a bit and you're out of position, if you do hit, so he won't be calling off big bets. reads would help of course. |
#13
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I don't think you have very much fold equity once he pots the turn. Plus having no pair/J-high is obv pretty bad for us when he does call the ai.
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#14
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i like how the whole thing was played. i think betting the river is good vs some.
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#15
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Your hand is too face up on this river not to at least value bet.
As is I am then b/f |
#16
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nm you're not deep enough for b/f
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