Iffy at Best?

[Buzz]

Wackjob - The 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn is a terrible card for you.

You're have to think you're probably ahead after the flop, even when the betting goes nuts behind you. Of course you worry about being up against a flopped set when Button three-bets.

But I wouldn't think, given your opinion of Button, that the three-bet necessarily means a set. And there's a rather low probability Button has flopped a set, only about 4% or so. Still, it is possible, so that the three bet gives you pause.

And then the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn enables low for an opponent, so that now you are probably only playing for half the pot.

But you don't have enough opponents to play for half the pot. You didn't necessarily need to make a flush or a set or two pairs yourself on the turn, but you had to still have a better chance to scoop than you do with three low cards on the board.

And therefore you have to reluctantly give up your hand to the turn bet. It's a tough fold because it looks like BB doesn't have much and like Button is betting low. And therefore you reason that you have a decent shot at high. But although you do have a chance for high, it's not good enough, with low enabled, to continue.

It's a tough fold on the turn, but I believe that is your play.

Buzz

[bbartlog]

2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a terrible card? That seems to overstate things a bit. OK, it makes a low possible - but it doesn't set up a flush draw besides ours (like a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would), it doesn't make a straight possible (like a T or 5 or 7 would), it doesn't make a higher pair than our Q possible (like an A would), it doesn't raise the possibility than someone with a lower pair made trips (like a 4 or 8 would). It's not one of our outs, but it's not one of many cards we would really have hated.
As for numbers... in full ring, I seem to recall that odds of an opponent holding As when you have Ks are 36%. Simple division when facing three opponents instead of nine does not give an exactly correct value but should be in the ballpark, so odds of opponent holding a better flush draw are about one in eight.
Personally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

[/ QUOTE ]Bart - Upon reflection, I agree with you that Hero has favorable odds to call the turn. And in that case, I can't see what Hero did wrong, if anything.

Thank you for the correction.

Buzz

[TxRedMan]

[quotePersonally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 18 outs. If your opponent has a set you have you have either 15 or 16, I dont remember the board, if your opponent has the nut flush draw you have 9 ways to improve. Whatever the specifics are, by calling the three bet on the flop you have bloated the pot, which is the hold'em equivalent of 3-betting with total trash and then having to call an AI b/c you're getting 3.5-1 or something similar.

Fold to the three bet.

As played, there is no way you can fold the river. If you're going to be folding this river then you seriously don't need to be playing this hand after the flop.

[RobNottsUk]

I done some calcs on the Nut flush issue.

Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents, and it'll be sooted around 54% of time.

So against just 3 hands, 1 folded, with poor players, those who say not to discount the 2nd nut flush much, are I think right. Nevermind the read, that they'ld likely not Push with nut Flush draw, and are probably trying to promote marginal 2-way hands.

As the odds do seem to commit OP to calling all the way, the first reply, suggesting that leading out on that board, without the backup Lo, is probably right (against these players where there's little fold equity). You're going to be calling lots of bets to protect a very small orginal investment.

But I guess (as this hand has been posted on the forum), that the button actually had something ironic like AA28 which was slow-played pre-flop, and got outdrawn by the river card, for a scoop to Hero.

[bbartlog]

Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents

Doesn't sound right. 3 opponents hold 12 cards between them. After the flop, you can see 7 of the 52 cards in the deck. The odds that the unseen ace is in one of their hands should be exactly 12/45 (neglecting adjustments for their hand ranges and the like), or a little more than one in four.
54% sounds right in general for the chance that a particular ace is suited, but when you have two of the suit in your hand and there are two on the flop you would also have to think about conditional probabilities that would make the chance of some opponent's ace being suited a bit lower.

[Rush17]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying to convince the forum of your thought process, or are you still trying to convince yourself? Not intended to be rude or condescending.

Fwiw, when I bet and there's a raise and a re-raise, I usually give the 3-bettor credit for something strong. The initial raiser can have a wide range, but in this particular spot with a bet, raise, then a re-raise- the 3-bettor is going to either have a set, or the nut flush draw/low draw a huge % of the time.

That being said I'll usually discount something in my hand when it's 3-bet. Say you put him on a set, so your two pair outs aren't any good, or you put him on the nut flush draw, where your flush draw wouldn't be any good, or maybe he has a low draw and an oesd, where he's basically free rolling you.


A lot of players need to quit thinking they're getting 4-1 on this flop. That's the immediate pot odds, but maybe Buzz can chime in here and tell you what your long term odds are in that spot, i.e., how often a low will be made that reduces your odds by 50%, etc, and I'm assuming you're really only getting about 2.75/1 on that flop in the long run.


Fold to the three bet. You have one nut out, and you're often going to be putting in 2 more BB's after you cold call the 3-bet.

Also, players stats may be fishy in this hand, but go back and look at their hand ranges where they've 3-bet. Even these middle limit loose players show up with a hand when they 3-bet two people on the flop.


Fold the flop, easily, and don't lose any sleep over it.

[/ QUOTE ]

TX, this was pretty much my take on it as well.

To the OP: You're going to be in much better situations against these players and they're all going to be there to pay you off when you are.

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents

Doesn't sound right. 3 opponents hold 12 cards between them. After the flop, you can see 7 of the 52 cards in the deck. The odds that the unseen ace is in one of their hands should be exactly 12/45 (neglecting adjustments for their hand ranges and the like), or a little more than one in four.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes thank you for pointing that out! I wrote a post showing working, it got 'lost' and then in a rush I re-posted and managed to mangle it completely.

The 54% figure is though right, and 12/45 * 54/100 = 0.144 or 1/6.94; So the 1/6 was actually a pessimistic discount rate, based on 1/2 * 1/3, presuming 2 of the players would actually fold some hands.