$235 6 Man: Turn Gives Me Top 2 But Brings Flush Possibility - Page 2

suzzer99 · #11 05-17-2007, 02:13 PM

The only way I would lay this down is some kind or read/bet-size combo.

IE - villian makes a min-RR on the turn and I know he'd never make a play. Or he checks behind turn and shoves river and I have a note he does that with monsters. Or I check the turn and he makes smallish milking bets on turn and river AND I know he does this. Etc. etc.

But then again I'm a station, which is why I like check/call here as the most likely chance of me to not get stacked and get to a cheap river. If I just had a bare K I'd be more likely to bet out turn since I can lay it down a lot easier.

Also getting to the river gives me a slight chance at filling up, which I wouldn't see if I get RRed on the turn and have to lay it down.

JSH06 · #12 05-17-2007, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are you protecting on the turn with a bet? Most of the time he's either there or you're way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer to this question should be pretty obvious since there are 3 spades on the board and I don't have one in my hand. There's also a straight draw out there.

suzzer99 · #13 05-17-2007, 03:21 PM

So lets say he called the flop with a FD, a bare K or an OESD (which isn't as likely since you have a Q). Unless his kicker to the K is a spade or he has QT/Ts, he's either way ahead of you, tied, or way behind w/o much to protect against.

I guess I just see flush or bare K as the most likely. And since I wouldn't think I could stack Kx at a $235 on this board, I want to avoid getting stacked by mr. flush.

Also betting more on the flop would at least not price in FDs and OESDs.

Slim Pickens · #14 05-17-2007, 03:29 PM

with both the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the board, he's much less likely to have a made flush. There's a pretty good chance he's drawing to a flush, although I doubt runner-runner flush draws make much of a difference in people's flop-calling ranges. I see this being a combination king/draw most of the time, and given his stack size, open-push the turn and let him make a mistake by calling with a draw that's not nearly as good as he thinks it is.

Pudge714 · #15 05-17-2007, 03:34 PM

Bet call. Hope you fill up if he has AT or a FD.

suzzer99 · #16 05-17-2007, 03:36 PM

AT other than ATss would be pretty bad to call that flop. Not saying it doesn't happen, but I have a hard time putting it in my hands to worry about for him.

JSH06 · #17 05-17-2007, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also betting more on the flop would at least not price in FDs and OESDs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is getting a little less than 2.5:1 on the flop, while if he has a flush draw or an OESD he's about 4:1 to hit on the next card. I think those odds are bad enough for him. Why build a big pot with a mediocre hand in a 4 way raised pot?

suzzer99 · #18 05-17-2007, 03:57 PM

Because you raised it, and you hit TP, and you're OOP to two of them. Much better to define your hand and make it easier to play when you're OOP. 2/3 of the pot is not enough to price out draws, esp. if one calls ahead of another, and considering their implied odds with you betting into 3 ppl are pretty good.

If you're that worried about building a big pot, check/call. 2/3 protects nothing. It's like the perfect bet I'd want to see if I had a draw there to build a decent pot in case I hit.

JSH06 · #19 05-18-2007, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Because you raised it, and you hit TP, and you're OOP to two of them. Much better to define your hand and make it easier to play when you're OOP. 2/3 of the pot is not enough to price out draws, esp. if one calls ahead of another, and considering their implied odds with you betting into 3 ppl are pretty good.

If you're that worried about building a big pot, check/call. 2/3 protects nothing. It's like the perfect bet I'd want to see if I had a draw there to build a decent pot in case I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand if 2 people call. But me betting into 3 people after raising preflop shows a lot of strength, and it's less likely that 2 people will come along. They may think they have big implied odds because of this, but they really don't because I'm not paying them off when they hit. Saying that a 2/3 pot bet does nothing is ridiculous IMO. It certainly makes calling for anyone on a draw make a mistake. The only way they won't be making a mistake is if another person calls before them.