TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[Homer]

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Would it be too conservative to add 5-6% to your "true line" to get an "unknown error adjusted line" and use that?

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Hmm it doesn't make sense to me to add additional noise to the model to account for existing noise. If this model truly is flawed/broken I'd rather just ditch it.

Here they are the "true lines" for the picks I posted...

Chicago Cubs +113 (True Line -122)
San Francisco +102 (True Line -140)
Colorado +104 (True Line -112)
LA Dodgers -145 (True Line -222)
Toronto -157 (True Line -274)
Seattle +127 (True Line -102)

I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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I think he's just saying if your true line is +100 (50%), don't bet it unless you can get +122 (55%) on one side or the other.

[BackedUp]

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I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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Where is Crockpot posting his picks?

[whipsaw]

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I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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I'm fairly certain he wasn't fading your picks, just going the other way.

[TomG]

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I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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Where is Crockpot posting his picks?

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Crockpot's Gambl0g

[TomG]

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I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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I'm fairly certain he wasn't fading your picks, just going the other way.

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I agree, I don't think it was intentional. I respect his ability enough that it makes me concerned about a methodology that takes the opposite side.

[TomG]

Here are my estimated "true lines" for Thurs MLB... I'll likely be taking Cleveland (home dog, much stronger offensively with their own decent starting pitcher, may be overvaluing santana if that's possible), Milwaukee, Colorado, and Florida...

Home Team True Line Posted Line Value
Cleveland -123 121 21.86%
Washington 273 N/A #VALUE!
NY Mets -168 -129 11.36%
Chicago Sox 154 106 -18.89%
Philadelphia 135 101 -14.36%
Colorado -119 -104 6.45%
Oakland -202 -175 5.05%
Boston -213 -186 4.64%
Pittsburgh 148 -104 -21.00%
Tampa Bay -151 -146 1.25%
Houston -241 -185 8.88%
Seattle -133 -119 4.97%

I'm laying off Mets and Yankees because it's too hard to rate their starting pitchers (Vargas 1st game in 2007, Guzman is green too, I can't figure out just how good is DeSalvo) using strictly analytic methods.

[TomG]

Hopping on board the plays as I suggested above...

Thurs May 17th MLB...

Minnesota at Cleveland
Cleveland +116
Risk 1 unit to win 1.16 units

Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Milwaukee -115
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Arizona at Colorado
Colorado -106
Risk 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Florida at Pittsburgh
Florida -102
Risk 1.02 units to win 1 unit

[TomG]

YTD:
7.02 units wagered
+0.04 units
0.57% ROI

[TomG]

Friday, May 18 MLB...

Interleague play! The model adjusts for league averages so as not to reward/penalize players for playing in a weaker/stronger leauge. The biggest interleague mismatch I see is Toronto at Philadelphia. The Phillies have the best offensive power rating in the NL and Toronto above agerage in the AL. But adjusted for league differences Phillies should only be a slight favorite (that's even after giving Toronto's McGowen an xERA of 6!).

Similar argument for LAA LAD matchup.

For the non-interleague match-up, AZ has both slightly better pitching and offensive power rating than Pittsburgh. Give Pittsburgh the HFA and take the overlay on AZ.

Finally, the Yankees line seems weird. Even giving NYM the full 4% HFA I don't understand why the Mets are favored over the vastly superior Pettitte and the Yanks #1 AL offensive Power rating (DH Giambi accounts for only slightly more than his fair share of NYY's starting line-ups offensive power rating).

Home Team True Line Posted Line Value
Chicago Cubs -156 -136 5.81%
Tampa Bay 132 -115 -19.53%
Boston #N/A N/A #N/A
Cleveland -185 -178 1.36%
Detroit -186 -110 24.26%
Washington 150 109 -16.31%
Philadelphia -109 -170 -17.14%
Pittsburgh 121 -135 -21.37%
NY Mets 123 -110 -14.24%
Milwaukee -139 -160 -5.60%
Houston -114 -115 -0.36%
Colorado -179 -170 1.94%
LA Angels -114 115 14.62%
Oakland -107 -106 0.55%
Seattle 125 118 -3.19%

Laying off FLR/TB due to this being pitchers 1st start for FLR. Likewise for WAS pitcher.

Picks for Friday.

Toronto at Philadelphia
Toronto +162
Risk 1 unit to win 1.62 units

Arizona at Pittsburgh
Arizona +127
Risk 1 unit to win 1.27 units

NY Yankes at NY Mets
NY Yankees +102
Risk 1 units to win 1.02 units

LA Dodgers at LA Angels
LA Angels +115
Risk 1 unit to win 1.15 units

[irisheyes]

Tom,

apologies for the stupid question, but does the xERA calc formula come straight out of the Murray book? Does it have any relation to the xERA from the xera-baseball guys?

Thanks!