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#11
05-16-2007, 07:34 AM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to
It's a clear fold.
There will be no coin-flip next hand for shortie. You'll fold next hand UTG. If chipleader isn't insane - he'll call. SB will also call, and shortie with a random hand will be against two opponents willing to check the hand down - it's about 30% to survive... I'm shoving here with AA only, though it's probably a leak. 
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#12
05-16-2007, 10:33 AM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to
Easy fold....even if short stack triples up next hand you will be in better shape.
He would have 1800 with 1200 in the BB next hand....he can't make it through the blinds any way you look at it without going all in. You can make iot rheough one more orbit. Stake your girlfriend.
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#13
05-16-2007, 11:28 AM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to do?
Fold JJ.
When shorty is all in BB, call and hope everyone checks it down to the river. 3:1 that he gets busted.
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#14
05-16-2007, 11:37 AM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to do?
Listen to your girlfriend here...fold in the dark.
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#15
05-16-2007, 11:42 AM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to
[ QUOTE ]
Fold JJ. When shorty is all in BB, call and hope everyone checks it down to the river. 3:1 that he gets busted. [/ QUOTE ] This is the more interesting question: what to do next hand. If you fold you can survive the blinds barely. But that will mean that shorty survived his all in and will have you easily covered at that point, so surviving the blinds with 300 chips left (minus antes?) will be meaningless. So it seems better to improve the odds of busting him. I fold JJ and call from UTG next hand, putting it all on getting him out next hand. If you get raised by one of the other 2, what kind of range do you call the rest of your chips off with, if any, realizing that if you both bust, you win.
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#16
05-16-2007, 01:07 PM
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Re: Live-Qualifier, JJ on the bubble, not the shortest stack - what to
This is a live qualifier and hopefully button and sb are savvy enough to pick up a tell.
I'd limp UTG but say something that wouldn't neccessarily be construed as collusion. Maybe like "Good Luck All-in. This hand either quadruples you up or busts you." Then smile at the other players and tap your cards like checking.
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