Who do you have a bet on to win Idol? - Page 2

luckyjimm · #11 05-14-2007, 12:01 PM

If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

suzy89222 · #12 05-14-2007, 12:08 PM

jordin is at +825 on bookmaker to go home this week. while i agree that it's very unlikely she will, anything can happen. i like the bet. i just threw away more money im sure though.

thing85 · #13 05-14-2007, 12:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's so easy to say this in hindsight. I also remember when people were touting Sundance and saying that Blake's gimmick wouldn't get him far. At T24, Lakisha was a favorite - shorting her would be a gamble. Why didn't we short Melinda when she was a favorite priced at 54? I'm sure some of us did, but there was a point where she was miles ahead of everyone, a lock for the top 2, and now look - she's vulnerable this week.

GrannyMae · #14 05-14-2007, 12:46 PM

i have 32 blake contracts at wsex, and $50 @4-1 on jordin with bodog.

i've decided to hold my blake's and pray for the other 2 to die, thus allowing me a chance to turn a small profit for the year.

i was considering selling some of them, but i'd rather go for it than simply get a couple of hundred back.

if he makes it to T2, i may reconsider.

pokerplayer28 · #15 05-14-2007, 01:07 PM

I cleared $5600 on LL and elimination bets and will win an extra 555 if blake wins 1116 Jordin and 1471 if melinda wins

same situation I was in last year not much gamble in me

pokerplayer28 · #16 05-14-2007, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt bet all the money I had in the world but I shorted 35 Lakishas at an average price of 19.8

StellarWind · #17 05-14-2007, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

TheVegan · #18 05-14-2007, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny because back then her odds were so low that Iwouldn't touch her. In fact I was considering shorting her.
Then she came crashing back down to earth and her odds started to skyrocket and then I started to bet everthing I could on her.

TheVegan · #19 05-14-2007, 03:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
jordin is at +825 on bookmaker to go home this week. while i agree that it's very unlikely she will, anything can happen. i like the bet. i just threw away more money im sure though.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was playing there I would make a limit bet on that. I don't think she is going home this week but with the apparent blind support Blake gets along with a potential great week by Melinda it's not out of the question that Jordin leave. GREAT BET!!!

pete fabrizio · #20 05-14-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

iirc, some of us were definitely saying that Lakisha was way overpriced when she was at like 25.