Comm 40: KK vs Gabe and a donk

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

At first glance, the river is an easy call.

At second glance, the river is an easy fold.

At third glance, the river is an easy call and it isn't close.

[mike l.]

"I guess Gabe could be smart enough to bluff w/KK here, no?"

there's no real reason for gabe to know that shawn has a big hand too. he should suspect it's something decent but expect to get accidentally paid by shawn holding TT, 99, AJ, AK, whatever and not realising gabe needs to hold a monster. also gabe should want to let bb pay him off with whatever nonsense he might have.

of course, we all know that since ive said all this repeatedly gabe probably had 32o or AK or JTs or whatever. but anyone who's played with gabe enough knows that might happen like 1 time in 100 if that...

[mike l.]

"At third glance, the river is an easy call and it isn't close."

back up you glanced too many times.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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"letting Gabe bluff a brick"

i know gabe well and he's never bluffing here. there's either a slim chance of a chop or youre destroyed, so hero needs to fold the river, possibly the turn.

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I guess Gabe could be smart enough to bluff w/KK here, no? I guess that makes it closer but I still doubt enough so to call given you'd be chopping.
Rob

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I hope you mean bluff with AK?

Hero's range weights extremely heavily toward AK on this river. That gives Gabe intriguing reasons both to bet AK to fold out a chop and perhaps to value bet a worse hand like TT.

I don't know what his capping range is preflop and I don't know with which hands he continuation bets the turn, but if he gets to the river with this action, he should be betting an awful lot. The situation isn't great by any means, but I don't think it's especially close to a fold.

Also, the fact that you will occasionally chop with KK is non-trivial. It doesn't give you the odds to call by itself but it materially reduces the odds you need on one of these sorts of parlays to come through. If somehow you knew that he could never have the other KK there then the decision would be closer.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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there's no real reason for gabe to know that shawn has a big hand too.

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That's exactly why Shawn has to call.

[Entity]

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Also, the fact that you will occasionally chop with KK is non-trivial. It doesn't give you the odds to call by itself but it materially reduces the odds you need on one of these sorts of parlays to come through. If somehow you knew that he could never have the other KK there then the decision would be closer.

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Yeah, that's basically what I was trying to point out, but I was a few whiskeys in at that point. I don't really know Shawn, but I do tend to think that there isn't much value in Gabe betting with KK there on the river (with the exception of him getting Shawn to fold the other KK). [This was written before realizing that the pot was not HU on the river, in which case I think the bet is clearly a value bet].

Rob

[Entity]

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there's no real reason for gabe to know that shawn has a big hand too.

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That's exactly why Shawn has to call.

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I think with the BB still present in the hand Gabe's chances of bluffing with AK to get Shawn to fold the other AK are significantly decreased. Protected pot and all, sure, but the parlay Gabe has to have in that spot for one player to have T9/etc and the other player to have AK (and while you are right that Shawn's handrange certainly is favored toward AK here, it's not as huge as one might initially think as I don't think Shawn is going to give excessive action on this flop with AA, KK, or AK, so it's basically 6:9 weighted in AK's favor).

Anyway all I'm trying to say by all of this is that with the presence of BB, AK becomes a much stronger candidate for a check than for a betting-to-fold-a-chop, though consequently KK now becomes a better valuebet as the loosepassive can pay off with a wider range of hands while Shawn folds AK.

Rob

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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Also, the fact that you will occasionally chop with KK is non-trivial. It doesn't give you the odds to call by itself but it materially reduces the odds you need on one of these sorts of parlays to come through. If somehow you knew that he could never have the other KK there then the decision would be closer.

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Yeah, that's basically what I was trying to point out, but I was a few whiskeys in at that point. I don't really know Shawn, but I do tend to think that there isn't much value in Gabe betting with KK there on the river (with the exception of him getting Shawn to fold the other KK).

Rob

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No value in him betting KK? KK's pretty much the nuts against Sean's range. I just can't see AA playing that passively, not with a third player in the hand. AQ/KQs/etc is unlikely based on preflop and the fact that Sean might well have bet into him on the river. QQ and JJ are impossible as they would have given more action.

From his point of view Sean's range on the river is like 65% AK, 20% TT, 5-10% some other marginally showdownable hand like 99 or AJs, 5-10% something that beats or chops with him.

[Entity]

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Also, the fact that you will occasionally chop with KK is non-trivial. It doesn't give you the odds to call by itself but it materially reduces the odds you need on one of these sorts of parlays to come through. If somehow you knew that he could never have the other KK there then the decision would be closer.

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Yeah, that's basically what I was trying to point out, but I was a few whiskeys in at that point. I don't really know Shawn, but I do tend to think that there isn't much value in Gabe betting with KK there on the river (with the exception of him getting Shawn to fold the other KK).

Rob

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No value in him betting KK? KK's pretty much the nuts against Sean's range. I just can't see AA playing that passively, not with a third player in the hand. AQ/KQs/etc is unlikely based on preflop and the fact that Sean might well have bet into him on the river. QQ and JJ are impossible as they would have given more action.

From his point of view Sean's range on the river is like 65% AK, 20% TT, 5-10% some other marginally showdownable hand like 99 or AJs, 5-10% something that beats or chops with him.

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On the flop and the turn, if Shawn/Sean has AA, he's even money with most of Gabe's range, I think (I could be underestimating Gabe's range here). I've never heard much about him giving excessive action, though, and I think putting in many more bets with AA is about as foolish as putting in many more bets with KK. That's largely dependent upon whether or not Gabe will cap with JJ, and it's hard for me to say much about that one hand specifically. I don't think AA is necessarily worthy of being fully weighted here, but I think discounting it by any significant amount would be a fairly large error as it's a very reasonable holding for many players, even TAGs, given the board texture and reads they may have on Gabe. I'm not certain whether I'd be finding a raise vs. Gabe on this board with AA, even though most of my experience with him specifically is through Mike L, Deathdonkey, and others. If I were to put Shawn (or another 2+2er who I do not have a read on as being hyperaggressive) on a handrange here, it would largely be weighted toward AK, KK, and AA, with a small chance of TT and virtually no chance of hands like AJs and 99. I wouldn't even put the chance at 1-2%, let alone 5%-10%, by the time we get to the river. It's a full ring game and Gabe raised UTG, then capped a late position 3-bet in a 3-way pot with a loose-passive. So, assuming BB had open-folded or something along those lines on the river, would Gabe have much value in betting with KK? Strictly speaking, I don't think so -- largely because in a full-ring environment I can't imagine Shawn calling with AK here.

A lot of what I'm writing about the hand has to do with suppositions that I've made on Gabe's game based on conversations with other players, so it should be noted that I'm not simply substituting Gabe with "tough aggressive player," but have a more detailed view of what I think his handrange is and what I think he can/should accordingly valuebet. Whether or not any of that is correct, on the other hand, is a matter for another discussion. :P

Rob

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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there's no real reason for gabe to know that shawn has a big hand too.

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That's exactly why Shawn has to call.

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I think with the BB still present in the hand Gabe's chances of bluffing with AK to get Shawn to fold the other AK are significantly decreased. Protected pot and all, sure, but the parlay Gabe has to have in that spot for one player to have T9/etc and the other player to have AK

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The presence of the third player can make the bluff look stronger. Also, his range shouldn't be all that scary to Gabe since every fish hand and its mother has some sort of straight draw on a QJx board and should also be calling the turn with a gutshot or better given that the pot is so large. I also think that the fish will usually have raised somewhere along the line with a Q since unlike Shawn he's in a position to protect his hand and the fact that he's passive is mitigated by the fact that he's bad and probably doesn't read hands well (e.g. he'll take flopping top pair more at its face value). So I think his range consists of a lot of J's and a lot of AT/AK/KT/T9/K9 etc, and perhaps he'll even fold the J's some of the time to a river bet.

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(and while you are right that Shawn's handrange certainly is favored toward AK here, it's not as huge as one might initially think as I don't think Shawn is going to give excessive action on this flop with AA, KK, or AK, so it's basically 6:9 weighted in AK's favor).

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There's plenty of room in between "giving excessive action" and check-calling the whole way down with AA. Against a range of JJ-AA and AK, AA has 62% equity while KK has 36% equity. I think the only way Shawn plays AA this passively is if he picks up some kind of tell or is running bad. And that's the thing ... once you remove AA from Shawn's range his range becomes really non-threatening.