Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 05-21-2007, 09:43 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,515
Default Re: little problem just thought of (evil numbers) [spoiler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

As k->infinity, I believe the probability that a random number in [0,1] has k as a partial sum of the scf coefficients is 0. That's because the expected value of the nth coefficient is infinite, as the probability that the value is t is about c/t^2. For a more exact limiting distribution, see this exposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the majority of partial quotients are 1's and 2's...and the probability that a given partial quotient is n drops off rather quickly as n gets large. So intuitively, your summing a bunch of small numbers together...it would be hard to continually "miss" the sum your looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to revise your intuition about the frequency of large coefficients. The expected value of any coefficient is infinite. Take a single random number to a thousand digits of precision, and you'll probably find that the average of the first thousand coefficients is quite large compared with typical coefficients. Ninety-nine random numbers (99 to estimate percentiles) produced average values of the first 1000 coefficients ranging from 7.003 to 259.116.

Here are the results of a Monte Carlo analysis of the frequency of particular partial sums with 10,000 trials:

Partial sum / Percentage scfs with that partial sum
1 50.36%
2 33.15
3 29.00
4 27.40
5 26.33
6 24.29
7 23.55
8 23.24
9 22.64
10 21.61
100 13.86
666 9.87
1000 9.48
10000 6.98

This took a few processor-hours of computing time.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-21-2007, 08:29 PM
imfatandugly imfatandugly is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 267
Default Re: little problem just thought of (evil numbers) [spoiler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

As k->infinity, I believe the probability that a random number in [0,1] has k as a partial sum of the scf coefficients is 0. That's because the expected value of the nth coefficient is infinite, as the probability that the value is t is about c/t^2. For a more exact limiting distribution, see this exposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the majority of partial quotients are 1's and 2's...and the probability that a given partial quotient is n drops off rather quickly as n gets large. So intuitively, your summing a bunch of small numbers together...it would be hard to continually "miss" the sum your looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to revise your intuition about the frequency of large coefficients. The expected value of any coefficient is infinite. Take a single random number to a thousand digits of precision, and you'll probably find that the average of the first thousand coefficients is quite large compared with typical coefficients. Ninety-nine random numbers (99 to estimate percentiles) produced average values of the first 1000 coefficients ranging from 7.003 to 259.116.

Here are the results of a Monte Carlo analysis of the frequency of particular partial sums with 10,000 trials:

Partial sum / Percentage scfs with that partial sum
1 50.36%
2 33.15
3 29.00
4 27.40
5 26.33
6 24.29
7 23.55
8 23.24
9 22.64
10 21.61
100 13.86
666 9.87
1000 9.48
10000 6.98

This took a few processor-hours of computing time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear what your saying...while small numbers occur most frequently in a "typical" continued fraction, their average value diverges , using the typical averaging function. i.e. if x=[0,a1,a2,...,an,...] then lim n->infinity (a1+....an)/n --> infinity.... since P(k)=probability of a quotient being k is approximately 1/k^2 and the averaging function will grow roughly like the harmonic series, or log(n).

Because of this it becomes more and more likely that the sum of the partial quotients of a typical c.f. will jump over a given value as we use more and more quotients in our sum.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:15 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.