this ATs me molesta

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is big enough to raise here. If dealer 3 bets we might have to fold the turn UI, but for the moment we want to knock out any weak overcards or gutshots that might be lurking behind us.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fine if you either have the best hand or your raise might fold a better hand than yours and improve your chance of winning.

But is anyone with Kx going to fold ? So, your raise may only end up protecting someone elses best hand, and leave you facing a 3-bet.

If you dont have the best hand, you do have a number of draws, which would seem to make seeing the next card worthwhile if possible.

So, I would prefer to just call. Could Aaron W, or anyone else who would prefer to raise please explain their reasoning ?

[Douglas Leslie]

This is fine if you either have the best hand or your raise might fold a better hand than yours and improve your chance of winning.

But is anyone with Kx going to fold ? So, your raise may only end up protecting someone elses best hand, and leave you facing a 3-bet.

If you dont have the best hand, you do have a number of draws, which would seem to make seeing the next card worthwhile if possible.

So, I would prefer to just call. Could Aaron W, or anyone else who would prefer to raise please explain their reasoning ?

[/ QUOTE ]


This is a big pot. The opening bettor might have a King, but he might also have QJ, Q10, J10 among other possibilities, all of which we are ahead of. What we don't want is to call and allow hands like AQ, AJ, J9 etc to call correctly in the hope of making their gutshot draw. We need to raise to knock that kind of hand out so that our hand will stand up more often if we are ahead. If we are behind to a King, we will have to hope that our re-draws come to the rescue. The point of the raise is not to fold out better hands, but to fold out hands that might improve on the turn to beat us.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a big pot. The opening bettor might have a King, but he might also have QJ, Q10, J10 among other possibilities, all of which we are ahead of. What we don't want is to call and allow hands like AQ, AJ, J9 etc to call correctly in the hope of making their gutshot draw. We need to raise to knock that kind of hand out so that our hand will stand up more often IF WE ARE AHEAD. If we are behind to a King, we will have to hope that our re-draws come to the rescue. The point of the raise is not to fold out better hands, but to fold out hands that might improve on the turn to beat us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thankyou for your response, and I hope you dont mind that I have highlighted part of your post.

The problem I am having with raising, is that with 5 opponents in this hand, I think that it is highly likely that at least one of them has a K.

I am hoping that a draw will improve my hand to overtake a K, which is why I would call.

And, I am in favour of raising to fold out hands on the turn that might beat us, but only if I think my hand is currently best or the raise improves my winning chances.

I am sorry, but I think I still need some persuading that raising is correct here.

[nerdking]

grunch

raise, see if we can narrow the field

/don't ask me who i'm s'posed to be.../

[Douglas Leslie]

They are just as likely to have a K if you call as if you raise. It is worth investing an extra bet in a large pot to improve your winning chances if they don't. You have a marginal hand in a big pot, so you have to play it aggressively. SSHE has a chapter called "Large Pots v Small Pots" that emphasises the importance of betting aggressively with marginal hands when the pot is big.

[JavaNut]

I don't mind Kx tagging along for the ride, I want to get rid of possible QJ.

If I can make QJ fold, then I have 5 strong outs (3A + 2T) and a BDSD + BDFD, to me that is worth a raise.

The main problem is that QJ will have OESD and with a pot this big, I doubt that I can make them fold, they will still get more than 7-1.

So if I cannot thin the crowd, there are very few cards that will really help me except for the BDFD. In that case I have a very marginal hand, which I would fold.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
They are just as likely to have a K if you call as if you raise. It is worth investing an extra bet in a large pot to improve your winning chances if they don't. You have a marginal hand in a big pot, so you have to play it aggressively. SSHE has a chapter called "Large Pots v Small Pots" that emphasises the importance of betting aggressively with marginal hands when the pot is big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Different hand, different action. In the SSHE example everyone (including hero) checked to the preflop raiser, who then bet on a flop that could easily have missed him.

Hero had a good chance of having a better hand than the preflop raiser in the SSHE example and his raise also had a chance of folding a better hand than his own.

In this hand (unlike the SSHE example), you have not had the benefit of seeing how much the 4 players in front of you like their hands, when you are facing the flop bet.

[Douglas Leslie]

P96 of HEPFAP gives the example of A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in a raised pot on a flop of 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and suggests that it is often correct to raise a bet on your right. The general principle is that if you think the pot is big enough to make a play at, you should be willing to invest an extra SB on the flop if it gets rid of opponents who might outdraw you on the turn.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
P96 of HEPFAP gives the example of A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in a raised pot on a flop of 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and suggests that it is often correct to raise a bet on your right. The general principle is that if you think the pot is big enough to make a play at, you should be willing to invest an extra SB on the flop if it gets rid of opponents who might outdraw you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again different hand, different situation. Notice in this hand that if you open raised preflop that you would probably have done this from the button. You might have raised from CO, but that seems a bit frisky.

So, in this example you are likely to be involved in a 2 or 3 player pot. Also the flop is very dry, and the bet from presumably one of the blinds is most likely Tx or perhaps an underpair.

Here your raise is representing an overpair to the board, in a smaller pot against fewer opponents (than in OP hand), and is something of a semi-bluff, with your outs to improve if called by a better hand.

In OP hand, your flop raise would be representing something like AK as you open raised, but you have too many opponents for a semi-bluff to be likely to fold everyone.

You have 5 opponents who called your preflop raise, and IMHO I think that at least one of them is likely to have a K and wont fold to your flop raise.

So, I think your flop raise is more likely to be protecting someone elses hand than your own and therefore unlikely to be +EV.

Whereas, your backdoor flush and straight draws are to the nuts, and combined with your 2 pair or trip outs equate to roughly about the same as a FD or OESD to me.

So, I would play my hand the same way that I would a FD or OESD, which is why I would call as opposed to raise on the flop.

[Douglas Leslie]

The book doesn't say how many opponents there are, but if it is just a two or three player pot the hand is barely worth a call let alone a raise.

p95- "Even if you are not sure that you have the best hand, a raise is often correct. Keep in mind that if you do hold the best hand, or if your hand becomes the best hand, your raise may have stopped other opponents from drawing out on you".

It is perfectly possible that someone will have a K here, but you still have a chance of overtaking it. Why worry about one extra SB if it increases your overall winning chances though?