25/50 at bellagio AA on good board but really deep

[KEWL]

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i bet the turn.

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[lsuplayer]

online that seems like a massive overbet, but live its 3k into 2.4k not really a big overbet, i agree that its probably AJ or similar and he's trying to take the pot...I know most people don't agree with this line but i like a raise and a blocking bet on the river.

[TStoneMBD]

villain called pretty quickly on the flop. overcalling seems really strong but not raising seems really weak. i dont know what i put them on, i figured they both had like AJ/QQ. on the turn i wasnt worried about the player behind me, i thought it was really unlikely hed proceed if i called.

i could see why you guys say bet the turn, that seems like the standard line. i just figured that if i fired 2000 or something id probably fold out all AJ type of hands and i really doubt id get a value bet of 4k+ in on the river, so checking seemed like the best way to get money out of the hand, and if something crazy happens like UTG+1 bets and CO raises i can probably muck safely. i just didnt feel like a triple barrel would be successful here.

you guys are probably gonna be like "well if your plan was to check so they could bet why arent you calling now?" well i didnt expect an overbet and strong tell from the cooky guy.

[jcmoussa]

seems a little crazy to be betting this turn so huge with a boat, i think youre going to see QQ here alot. i call and probably lead river or c/c

[snagglepuss]

i think if you chk-call-lead you have to lay him a sick price on the river. but i think that maximizes ev in a vaccuum

[TxRedMan]

Tstone-

I'm not attempting to belittle you with this remark, but I think there's some truth to it;

It sounds like you've got too much money on the table, and that you're playing scared.

I'll give you an example: If you reduced this down to 5/10, and you had $3000 on the table, how much easier would this be for you?

As played, if you check that turn, it's got to be w/ the intentions of calling his bet. AJ+ will take that line a lot- and fwiw, if you call, most players will shutdown on the river if you check to them again hoping to keep the pot small(er).

You should have bet 2/3 the pot on the turn.

Also, keep in mind that in live play a lot of people roughly estimate the size of the pot, so an overbet like this isn't really much of an overbet.

[FatalError]

LOL @ the thought of tstone being scared money in this game. he flipped a coin for 700k...

[GTL]

i think an overbet by villain in this situation most likely indicates top pair, an overpair, or trip 5's in this order.

In my experience, when a villain flops a set and decides to slowplay it he doesn't make a huge bet like this on the turn when he boats up. Often he will check behind or make a small bet. So I'm really not worried about jacks full, 7's full, or quad 5's. If you're beat, I think it's much more likely that villain called the flop with a pair of 5's and has hit trips on the turn.

I like calling, and betting 4-5k on the river planning to fold to a reraise.

Does anyone like a check minraise on the turn here? With the intention of pushing the river? I kind of like that line if we think we're good.

[stephenNUTS]

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LOL @ the thought of tstone being scared money in this game. he flipped a coin for 700k...

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[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[riverboatking]

snagglepuss' line is perfect.
you call turn and lead river for like 3K-5K making a fake blocking bet.
this will maximize your value.

villian right now think his AJ/QQ/KJ is the best hand however once you call turn he's mostly likely going to check behind on river.

however he'll usually look you up if you fire small on river so i'd probably bet like 4K and try and look scared.

and i doubt you have to worry about him bluff raising the river, that move is reserved for good players.