MLB Week of 4/29 (Intro)

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably correct in that I'm overestimating my edge. I've followed baseball closely for many years as well as having played it, but I have never done betting on it, which means I am probably off a little on my %'s. I had always heard overtime beating a line for 5% is about the best you could do, so im almost certainly too high on my figures.

On the Toronto question I expect it to be a low scoring game, and I really don't see any team having a significant edge over the other one given the matchups. Overtime I think the average scores between the teams would fall to within one run. ie 4-3, but I am not sure how I would quantify to a correct estimate on the run. Is it necessary to be able to quanity the answer to a precise % for an individual game? That is an honest question, is there a methodology that I can use minus the ol' looking at matchups, computing an edge (Not a mathemetical one) (perhaps thats my problem), and just trying to figure out what they avg score would be over 20 games simulated out? Of course this is baseball, all my predictions could be off by a landslide but still be correct over time. Are there any great posts I should check out etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are essentially trying to cap games in your head by feel, which while fun and substantially easier, just isn't going to beat professional books in the long run. A lot of winning cappers create systematic, number-crunching systems (for lack of a better term - I really don't like the term 'system') that will predict average final scores or a basic moneyline approximation (for example).

But even that doesn't tell the whole story, especially when betting the runline. You also have to predict how the average scores will fall over time. Say you approximate that the average score between teams A and B to be 4 to 3, and you can bet B +1.5 at a line of -150. Do you bet it? Who knows? You have to win the bet 60% of the time to break even. You need to know how the scores distribute over time. Baseball scores aren't linear. Perhaps there is a huge clustering of likely scores at 5-2 and 3-4 (which could come from hundreds of potential factors - A's significantly superior starting pitching matchup, A hitting more home runs which would increase the chances that they win by more than one run, a subpar bullpen by A which will increase the chance that B, the home team, coming back to win by 1 in the 9th, whatever), creating an average score of 4-3.

So, the score distribution might look like this:

A wins by more than 1: 50%
A wins by 1: 10%
B wins: 40%

In that scenario, you obviously wouldn't bet, because you really only will win 50% of the time, and you need 60% to break even.

However, the distribution might look like this:

A wins by more than 1: 30%
A wins by 1: 40%
B wins: 30%

In this scenario, it's a great bet, because you will win 70% of the time, which is over your breakeven of 60%. But understand that both hypothetical score distributions can create an "average" score of 4-3, so the "average" score really isn't that helpful. Creating a specific score distribution in your head is basically impossible with any real accuracy.

I hope that helps somewhat.

[Spence]

that helped tremendously. You are right I am definitely still in the feel stages. I am going to slowly work towards my own system over time after i find consistent markers of success. As of right now, I know what overlaying factors usually play a role in the overall game, but I am still working towards finding the keys to the points you mentioned. Your post really helped me see where I was failing and I'll be working towards finding the "system" that works.

[Spence]

Alright results from yesterday:

Colorado Rockies at San Fran. Giants Over 8 -(115) push, got lucky.
Arizona Diamondbacks at LA-N Dodgers (-120) 5u to win 9.16u
LA-A Angels at Kansas City Royals (+114) 5u to win 10.70u
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-1.5)(+125) lost 5u

I think I'm done trying to cover the spread. I'm not nearly ready to successfuly give good estimates on my chances when another team has to win by 2. Some day maybe.

Yesterday's Results: 2-1-1 +4.86u
WTD: 7-5-3 +6.74u

and on to my picks for today:

I have been spending the majority of the day trying to come up with some equations that will help my picks be more qualifiable. I have succeeded in doing so, and used some of the outcomes to pick the games I did today. I've still got a long way to go, but with your continued support I fully expect to be a successful handicapper by years out.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (-110) 5u
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+102) 5u
Cincinnati Reds (+120) at Houston Astros 5u

Let the games begin.

[Spence]

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (-110) 5u to win 9.54u
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+102) 5u to win 10.10
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros Lost 5u

Yesterday's Results: 2-1-0 (+4.64)
WTD Results: 9-6-3 (+11.38u)

Liked the results. Will have picks up by 4am today.

[Spence]

Time to really put the system to the test.

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds Under 9 (-110) 5u
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals Under 8.5 (Even) 5u
Seattle Mariners at New York-A Yankees (-200) 5u
Cleveland Indians (Even) at Baltimore Orioles 5u
Oakland Athletics (-150) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5u
Toronto Blue Jays (-106) at Texas Rangers 5u
Houston Astros (+120) at St. Louis Cardinals 5u

The system REALLY liked the Jays, and I was tempted to go 10u, but until I get some strong results I'll resist upping the units.

[Spence]

Pitching change, nm.