A value shove

[yad]

ok, but don't be a tease -- i hope you'll deliver!

[ikestoys]

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you are getting 1.5:1 odds when he calls. so while you'd rather he fold, you are fine with him calling you with a FD and overs.

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I don't see how this is relevant at all. His calling range includes nothing but hands that beat you and hands that are at best, a coinflip. Add these together and you are dominated by his range. DUCY?

Also, his odds here are irrelevant to whether or not you want a call. You don't want one unless he's willing to donate with 54o.

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1. almost never has a Q. This is because it's hard to flop trips,


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This isn't reasoning, its hope.
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many Q-having hands RR preflop


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KQ,QJ,Q10,Q9, Q8, even AQ doesnt reraise here all the time
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and also in my experience this type of player at this level will not raise this flop if he does happen to have a Q.


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this is bull, it is much too wide of a generalization for it to be actually true.

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2. almost never has a PP higher JJ+ (bc of preflop).


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I actually agree with that

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If you disagree with the above, then we will disagree about the hand.


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You assumptions and line of thinking are very poor here.
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anyway, given the above you are basically only losing to T9, or maybe TT (this kinda guy might not RR that even in a blind battle).


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If 109, why not A9,K9,J9,109? How bout AJs? J10s? You are bluffing, you can't possibly narrow villains range this much with the info you have presented

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he is bluffing with air a lot, though, and semibluffing flush draws all the time, and making this play a ton with mid-PPs.

There is already $23 in the pot. he has $50 left in his stack. you could argue that calling and getting things in on a safe turn is better. maybe it is. but folding here is very bad IMO.

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I want you, as an exercise, calculate what percentage villain has to fold for this move to be profitble, given that the villains calling range kills you. You'll be surprised.

[yad]

ikes, I have to say that I am a little disappointed:

1. the fact that you are shoving another $50 into $22, and hence are getting about 1.4:1 when he calls, is not irrelevant. It is the whole crux of the hand.

I disagree with you that his calling range includes nothing but hands that beat you and hands that are a coinflip. But even if this is true, you can profitably push and get called here, despite the fact that he may be more than 50% to win. Of course, this isn't to say that calling and pushing a safe turn isn't better (I'm not sure), but pushing can certainly be better than folding despite the fact that you are less than 50% to win when called (even if you are called 100% of the time).

2. the idea that he rarely has a Q here is not really hope (though I do hope it!). It's based on my experience playing against these guys that they rarely raise a Q here, plus the fact that there are two queens on the board limits the number of combinations of hands he could have that contain queens.

3. I just pokerstoved some things to see. I get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

146,520 games 0.005 secs 29,304,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Qd 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.516% 37.82% 07.69% 55420 11269.50 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 54.484% 46.79% 07.69% 68561 11269.50 { JJ-22, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, K9s, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, A9o, K9o, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 97o+ }


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I included in his range all better 9s, plus one worse one. I included several Q-having hands, because while I think he generally does not raise a Q sometimes he does. I included pocket pairs, as well as a bunch of plausible flush draw/straight draw hands.

I am 45% to win versus this range, so pushing is better than folding EVEN IF HE CALLS 100% of the time.

Now, if he folds enough of the hands I'm beating and calls with a tight enough range, you could possibly construct a calling range which is -EV. But that's a case of wanting him to call more, not fold more. And I don't think it will hold -- he is generally not folding much to my push.

4. If you want to argue that just flat calling the flop is better, that is definitely possible. But once you call the flop there is $42 in the pot and he only has $40 left.

Edited because I accidentlly put the wrong pokerstove results initially.

[ikestoys]

your range includes pair less than 99, that is not part of his calling range at all. Also it is missing a lot possible Q??? thats an awfully big assumption

your #1 point is completely wrong. in fact, it increases the amount of times villain has to fold for this move to be profitable.

i'll let others tell ya this is bad, i'm going to bed.

[yad]

yeah, sorry i put the wrong pokerstove initially. it's corrected now -- does not change much at all.

i see nothing wrong with point #1. frankly to argue that pot odds don't matter baffles me.

he definitely calls with pairs less than 99. maybe 22-99 is too wide, but he calls with a good fraction of htese.

[ikestoys]

pot odds don't matter from your point of view because you aren't calling, you are pushing.

pot odds matter for villain b/c he has to be right x% of the time to call. However, given your desc of villain, he will still call with a wide range. This is not good b/c even a wide range beats you. b/c you have made the price of your bluff so high, you have to be right a huge amount of the time.

What i asked you to do in the hand before was not a pokerstove. I want you to figure out how much you are risking to win the pot; then figure out how many times villain needs to fold a hand that beats you.

[yad]

I see what you mean, but you're misunderstanding what I'm saying.

What I am saying is that pushing is better than folding.

Forget about this specific hand for the moment. Say there is $22 in a pot, and you can either fold or shove for your remaining $50. Folding has 0ev. If you push and get called 100% of the time, and have 45% equity when called, you will win $72 45% of the time and lose $50 55% of the time. This has an EV of +$4.90. So pushing is better than folding, even if he ALWAYS calls.

edit: btw, this is why I call it a value bet.

[ikestoys]

value bet is defined as when you are making a bet where you beat villain's calling range

in this hand: calling~=fold>>>>>>>>>p ushing w/o some very specific reads

oh theres no f-ing way you have 45% equity... good night for real

[yad]

OK, gn.

In this hand, he called with 22 and my hand is good.

perhaps that is atypical, but not in my experience. but whatever.

Ikes, I don't see how you can say fold>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>pushing given the pretty straightforward math. if he calls with that full range, you have 45% equity. if he calls with a smaller range, then by definition he folds more often, so while you have less equity when called you pick up the money in the pot more often. this seems pretty basic to me.

[Tickner]

based on stack sizes i like it... calling sucks cuz if we call we are basically commiting ourselves anyway... id hate to call this raise and then fold the turn.

mediocre players like to think we didnt hit flops like this...cuz most times we dont.

folding is the next best option. but i think his range is bigger than just Qx 8A and bigger pocket pairs.

I do this often as well but obv vs some opponents this is bad.