ensign_lee MLB picks 04/21/07-04/28/07

[ensign_lee]

Well, actually, if you look at the sagestats page, I have it defaulted to my NBA bets, so that I have to go and set it to my MLB bets to see that.

And if I go in the hole like I did again, I'll know that my experiment with baseball has failed horribly and I'll stop betting it.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 4-1
Units Won: 6.86

For a more in-depth analysis of my record, http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 . You'll have more info as to whether you want to follow or fade me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Allright, let's see what's on deck for today:

Toronto BlueJays (+178.36)
1 unit at Matchbook

Something's fishy. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Toronto, whereas Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Boston. I'm inclined to believe Wagerline over Sportsinsights.

Plus, the line moved to encourage more money on Boston. What's up with that?

I think that Boston is still hunogver happy from sweeping the yankees and will fall to Toronto tonight. Well, at least often enough to make +178.36 odds +EV.

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I will also be making a bet on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at the best possible price I can get before the game starts. Here's my reasoning:

Pinnacle and 5Dimes, the two sharpest MLB books in my mind, are both offering the current worst prices on Tampa Bay, while simultaneously offering VERY attractive prices on New York. That alone is enough to make me want to bet on Tampa, but wait...there's more! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Around 70-80% of the public (depending on where you get your info) is on New York, and yet the price has changed by 10 cents to make it more appealing still to bet on the Yankees.

This will either be a 2 unit or a 3 unit bet. We'll see. I'll post the odds I get as soon as I make the bet.

[ensign_lee]

Ended up with:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+156)
3 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle is holding New York at -156, which means they are willing to take Tampa Bay at +156 if they were to hold the bet. That was the tipping point from 2 to 3 units.

Allrighty. Here goes nothing!

[hlacheen]

I got 2 units on Tampa Bay at +150. We're looking good so far =)

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I got 2 units on Tampa Bay at +150. We're looking good so far =)

[/ QUOTE ]

I no longer feel safe betting against the Yankees until the game is over. Just as I type this, ARod hits one out.

[ensign_lee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I got 2 units on Tampa Bay at +150. We're looking good so far =)

[/ QUOTE ]

I no longer feel safe betting against the Yankees until the game is over. Just as I type this, ARod hits one out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. But then again, no lead in baseball is EVER safe. Congrats though!

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 6-1
Units Won: 13.32

For a more detailed record, go to my sagestats page: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978

You'll be able to glean more info about my record and make the decision as to whether to follow or fade.

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For today:

Oakland (+116)
2 units at BetJamaica

Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on Oakland, and so if they don't want bets on Oakland, I want to have a bet on Oakland.

Plus, the whole wagerline/sportsinsights dissonance is happening again. Wagerline shows 60% of the bets on Baltimore. Sportsinsights shows 60% of the bets on Oakland. I'm inclined to believe wagerline.

So therefore, two units.

[coolmoedee]

Damn, I took Balty and it looks like that will cost me dearly. I should stop thinking and start reading.

[MrFeelNothin]

So how many times did you clear the slate and start fresh during the basketball season before you caught a good run?

[ensign_lee]

For the later games:

Chicago Cubs (-158.16)
2 units at Matchbook

Once again, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently hold the worst prices on the Cubs. Only thing that worries me is that around 60-70% of the public (depending on your site) is on the same side with me.

Let's hope the cubs can take care of business.