3/6 I River teh Nuts, Should I Raise?

[James.]

Harv,
Fwiw I think it's closer than everyone is saying. Some handranges are what will dictate the best play. It's probably best to raise, but I actually think it's semiclose. I'm on my blackberry right now. When I get back to the office I'll try to put some ranges together if someone hasn't done it.

[Clover362]

You have to raise, utg+1 might call and the raiser definetly will so the overcall is worthless and we might get lucky and get coldcalled then raised. If that happend then going for the overcall might be good as mp1 probably has a straight but might have a set of tens.

[Harv72b]

Well, let me end the suspense then. I flat called the raise & got the overcall. I think that's the correct move in this specific situation.

It did come down to handreading, and I think that's a skill that a lot of us don't practice nearly often enough. Whether here when analyzing hands, or at the tables when playing them.

I believe I was just playing one table when this hand occurred (plus microsoft hearts), so that's obviously a factor in how much attention you can pay to a particular hand. But looking at the action...

UTG+1, who is a little loose and a little passive, openlimped preflop. He then bet an ace high flop into four opponents, got 3 callers, and checked a blank turn card. Based on that, I think we can narrow down his range pretty significantly:

1) (most likely) a weak, suited ace. He bets the flop having made top pair, gets worried that someone has him outkicked & checks the turn, sees nobody else bet and figures that his hand is good when the "blank" hits on the river.

2) A queen, very likely QT, which he tried to represent the ace with on the flop & then panicked when he got so many callers.

3) A flopped set that he tried to get tricky with on the turn.

4) (least likely) A KJ of his own. But as I said, this guy is pretty passive and I don't think he'd bet a gutshot draw into the field on this flop.

He's probably going to make a crying call with a set even if I 3bet, and possibly will with QT. But I don't think he'll call 2 more with an ace he was already scared to bet earlier (his most likely holding), and if he just has a pair of queens, he'll almost certainly make the laydown. If he's got KJ as well he'd obviously cap a 3bet.

Okay, on to MP1. He was unknown, but I generally assume that any unknown player is a typical player for those stakes (in this case, basically the kind of player that UTG+1 is--slightly loose & passive). I should have mentioned this in the initial reads, but when the river card hit UTG+1 led quickly into the field, and MP1 raised his bet instantly...which is a pretty significant timing tell. When you see that instant raise on the river, particularly in a multiway pot where the first bet came quickly, that's usually the nuts or darn close to it--his cursor was hovering over the raise button before it showed up on his screen. I know this because my cursor was hovering over where the raise button was going to appear. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] But anyway, what could he have?

He limped second in preflop, which if he is the typical slightly loose, passive player, could mean a weak to middling ace (probably suited if it's weak), two broadway, a pocket pair, or a suited connector. He flat called the flop bet from UTG+1 on an ace high flop with 3 people to act behind him--probably not a pocket pair that missed, and probably not suited connectors on that flop. He then checked the turn when UTG+1 failed to follow up, which makes an ace unlikely as well (or slowplayed set). We're left with two broadway cards as his most likely holding, and only two possible combinations of those play this hand the way he did--QT, or KJ.

The raise came instantly, which casts a bit of doubt (but doesn't at all rule out) QT--people realize that 2nd & 3rd pair on this board isn't the nuts. It just seemed to me like, far and away, his most likely holding was also KJ. So if I'm right about him, and I'm right about UTG+1, then by 3betting I force UTG+1 out of the pot & get capped by MP1, who I'm chopping with.

I obviously didn't have time to think all this through while the hand was going on. As I said, my mouse was hovering over the raise button when the action got me, but something stopped me from clicking it immediately. After the hand when I went back to review it I got all this stuff figured out, but during the hand that little poker "sixth sense" that's really just your brain remembering a pattern that it's seen before, told me what to do. This time I listened.

And I suppose that UTG+1 took my waffling as hesitation on whether to call or not, because he did give me the overcall after some hesitation of his own (it turns out he had Q9). MP1 did indeed have KJ and we chopped the pot, including an extra $3 apiece from UTG+1.

So I know what you're thinking--there are also going to be times when UTG+1 has QT or a screwplayed AA or something & would have overcalled anyway, and that's true. There are also times when he's got one of those hands and he makes the 3bet for me (and pays off MP1's cap). I guess my whole point with this thread is that far too often, we don't pay enough attention to what our opponents are likely have when we make a monster, and to act accordingly in a way that's most likely to make us the most money.

[James.]

decent ranges?

UTG+1: QJs, A2s-ATs, QTs, 44, KQo, AJo, KJ

unknown MP1: KJ, QT, maybe a discounted AT, TT or 44

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
decent ranges?

UTG+1: QJs, A2s-ATs, QTs, 44, KQo, AJo, KJ

unknown MP1: KJ, QT, maybe a discounted AT, TT or 44

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, about what I figured. Although I'd all but eliminate 44 from MP1's holdings, and add AA & QQ (at a heavy discount) to UTG+1's.

[BigBadBabar]

harv, results oriented?

[BruteScottAIN]

river nuts = raise... everytime.. period end of discussion.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
harv, results oriented?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Perhaps a little, which is another part of why I posted this thread. But I do think that, based on the information I had during the hand, flat calling on the river is the correct play.

[goofball]

The problem is the guy almost always calls the raise so you're free rolling on the other guy calling both.

[Bob T.]

Easy raise.

Ok, I think that there are two possible situations.

First MP1 has the straight, and you are chopping. If you call, you might get one more half bet from UTG+1. If you raise, you probably don't get the half bet. So might lose 1/2 bet by raising.

Second condition, you can beat MP1's hand. In that case, if you call, you might win one additional bet from UTG+1. But it isn't gauranteed, he might not overcall. If you raise, you most likely win one mor bet from MP1, and you have some chance of winning two more bets from UTG+1.

I think in this case, raising, probably gives you a better chance of winning 1 additional bet, and a small chance of winning 3 additional bets. Balanced against the half bet that you would lose in the case of a chop, I think that raising is almost certainly right. I think that you probably should only play for overcalls, if you have more than one player left to act behind you.