TPNK. 6 way action (109)

[Foucault]

I think this is real close. UTG+2 should not have any pocket pairs in his range since he should have shoved those pre-flop. But really, with one limper in already and him being in bad position, he should have jammed anything he was going to play. I just don't think you have enough of a read to say, "this must be a draw or worse, since the better part of the range he's representing shoves preflop." People play bad, especially on Bodog. In a heads up pot, it's different, and with a better read, it's different, but here I think you have to fold.

I do think it's closer than others are giving credit for, though.

[Ansky]

The only player id be worried about is the bb.

Still I can't see too many hands you beat.

I dunno really, i just woke up so I am really of no use at the moment.

[adanthar]

this is fine/once in a while I make a hero call here and am always surprised by what they limped, but it's usually spades/junk/overpair they should've shoved with. you're probably about breaking even on this call so either action's fine.

[stevepa]

I'm not at my place so I don't have stove with me but I'd bet this is a call against most reasonable ranges, even if you're very very often flipping or crushed. There are just so so so many flipping hands. Also, having a 7 is sort of nice, since it takes outs away from some really big draws he can have (87s, 97s, 98s) and gives you a tiny extra redraw when you are beat. FWIW I think spots like these are missed by a lot of good players since it's easy to just say "barely ahead or crushed, only 1.6-1, fold" but there are a lot more flipping hands (I'm including an over + flush draw as a "flip"), plus the random times he's bluffing.

Steve

Steve

[LearnedfromTV]

i think it's a call. steve mostly covered why.

maybe this is assumed but if you're going to call i think you have to shove, don't want someone with a draw like weakish spades behind you calling b/c it's 3 way and having more outs than they expect. and you may even get a better hand to fold.

[Cornell Fiji]

I take issue with a few comments so far in this thread:

Hamnegger said:
think i fold pot odds arent great and neither is my hand

The standard that I use to make my decissions is if the play would be +$EV or not (and at this stage in the tournament I believe that cEV approximates $EV enough to substitute them in my standard). Obviously I dominate nothing, even 64o has 7 outs against me and the vast majority of holdings that I will see is 2 overs and 2 overs and a flush draw, but I am ahead of those hands and if a call is +cEV then I don't care if my hand is not great.



[/ QUOTE ]

Thayer:
You are behind shover's range. Against him you are normally either barely ahead or way behind.

What is the shovers range if you think that I am behind? Keep in mind the hands that he is limping behind preflop.

I don't believe that the fact that I am 'slightly ahead way behind' has any significance whatsoever. I believe in overall equity once all 5 cards are turned up is the only thing that matters; SAWB is just a suspense builder. If the villain flips up two overs and a flush draw I am 53/47 against his hand; expectation is all that matters.



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ansky
The only player id be worried about is the bb.
Still I can't see too many hands you beat.

Uhhhh. How is a preflop check and a flop check scary enough that we can assume that he has TP beat? Did I misunderstand what you wrote? It seems if the BB's any two cards is my biggest cause for concern that I should be happy to get my chips into the middle.



[/ QUOTE ]

Betgo:
This is a fold. You are in OK shape against short stack with pot odds, but this is marginal, and you have four other players to act.

What are they checking here that beats me on the flop in a multiway limped pot on a somewhat drawy board? Why should I be scared of the EP players who checked if I think that a shove is +cEV against the shortstack?



[/ QUOTE ]

PhatPots
you have to fold this because it is very likely that someone behind you may have picked up a hand. If someone behind you has a big spade draw, a pair of 7s, etc. that is going to cause problems. If there was only one person behind you then I probably call it, but not with so many.

I am on the button so everyone 'behind' me has already checked. I am 53/47 against a big spade draw and with great pot odds I will take that happily. What hands do you have these EP players on that I should be scared of?



[/ QUOTE ]


I think that this might be one of those hands where people are afraid of turning up a hand that is drawing dead while the best case scenario is essentially a flip. If this is your thought process then you are making a huge mistake because holdem is played with 5 board cards and our status after the flop is insignificant. What should be considered is our long run equity against the shovers range and the ranges of those who limped pf and checked the flop on this drawy board.

As far as I see, despite the fact that the people telling me that this is a fold are good players, no one has proposed a range that should make me want to fold this hand.

-Steve

[thegreatchris]

I think it's a call, but marginally so. I think pocket pairs should at least be considered as a minor part of his range, maybe 22-88, along with suited connectors similar to yours and maybe suited aces as well. I find it hard to believe he has total air here moving into so many players. I wouldn't be surprised to see you ahead, but in a virtual coinflip against spades, 33-44, or a pair/straight draw.

[Cornell Fiji]

So as you might have inferred from my responses to this thread I shoved here and I am pretty sure that it was the correct play (although I am hoping that those who disagree can attempt to dispute my logic)


My thought was that the shortstack rarely has a pocket pair or A6s in this spot because he would have shoved those hands preflop after the limpers if he was halfway decent. It also makes sense for him to shove pretty wide here considering he has a chance to increase his stack by 65%. The problem that I am making with this assumption, as luckychewy pointed out in a PM to me, is that my assumption that the villain would have shoved any pocket pair preflop is based highly on what the correct action is in this spot, that is to say that shoving preflop is how I would have played the hand. Just because this is a $100 buy in I need to be careful to assume that the villain is competent. That said, even the most incompetent villains are shoving TT+ preflop in the villains shoes and most are shoving any pp. I put his range highly on KQ type hands that are hoping that everybody whiffed the flop; he is obviously also shoving with any two spades and any pair at this point. If we believe that he is playing A6s then we have to also assume that he is playing A5 so those two hands are pretty much a wash in our EV calculations

The UTG limper did not scare me because he had limped 2 of the last 3 hands and then folded without resistance so it was entirely possible he had QJo or something like that.

The only person who really scared me is the BB who very well could be planning a big check-raise but it didn't seem right to interpret a flop check as 6x, two pair, or a flopped straight considering all of the 2 card combinations that he could hold.

I am surprised at how many people thought this was a fold. I think that this is an easy, albeit thin, value shove.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
My thought was that the shortstack rarely has a pocket pair or A6s in this spot because he would have shoved those hands preflop after the limpers if he was halfway decent. It also makes sense for him to shove pretty wide here considering he has a chance to increase his stack by 65%. The problem that I am making with this assumption, as luckychewy pointed out in a PM to me, is that my assumption that the villain would have shoved any pocket pair preflop is based highly on what the correct action is in this spot, that is to say that shoving preflop is how I would have played the hand. Just because this is a $100 buy in I need to be careful to assume that the villain is competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why I still thought pocket pairs were in his range. He might be one of those players who values his "tournament life" too much to shove it in PF, but would rather wait to see a good flop then shove.

[djk123]

I would fold. Even if you have the best hand at the moment, i think he will usually have a big draw. plus there's always the chance someone wakes up behind you.