(109 Unarmed) big draw out of BB (10/15)

[GreekHouse]

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Next:

Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets t90</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>,

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I agree with those you like the check/call line here. You easily have more than a 2:1 shot to win this here and it's nice to keep the pot small oop. The initial check also might allow the sb to come along had the villain made a smaller bet, which isn't bad considering your drawing to a big hand.

If the villain has a hand and you check it to him again on the turn, you could easily stack him if a king hits and maybe even if your flush hits.

If the villain doesn't have a hand you might get a free card on the turn when you miss.

[Paul Thomson]

Kevner--

I think it's hard to put him on a strong Ace. I think most people at the 109 would raise with AK but I'm pretty sure quite a few would limp AQ. I'm guessing some loose players would limp with AJ.

Since he bet the pot, I'd put him on AQ or middle pair not Tens.

We've got the odds to push. However, I think if we push it looks like a draw and we're likely to get called at this level. I raise to 270 and push any turn unless one of our cards hit and then I slowplay it. We're still getting the odds to play our line this way and we're playing it like we have a monster not a draw.

[Paul Thomson]

just for the record...my math sucks. we'll rethink.

[Paul Thomson]

changed my mind, i'd raise to 270 and lead the turn for 300-350. If he pushes over the top, then I call. If he calls, I might give it up on the river and save my last 400.

I think this has to be a scary line for the villian. Because it looks like we're setting him up to put him all-in on the river. So if he calls our turn bet, I think in his head he's committing the rest of his stack regardless of what falls on the river.

I'd be curious if any 109 players would fold AQ or AJ in this situation if they were the villian.

[tigerite]

Ok, next part:

Hero calls t90

Turn: (t270) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero

[Paul Thomson]

lead at the pot for 150.

[Shillx]

You could check/raise all-in. If he bets T200 on the turn, the check/raise only has to work 29.7% of the time for it to be +cEV. So it might have to work 35% of the time for it to be +$EV.

If he pots it, it only has to work 26.3% of the time (so maybe 31% of the time in an SNG).

This seems like a reasonable enough play. You could always check and call, but the problem with c/cing is that your implied odds are unknown. Calling a pot sized bet on the turn is only worth it if he will payoff our flush (or straight). If our implied odds are nil, it makes much more sense to try for a check/raise now.

[raptor517]

this hand is easy. against anyone halfway decent, i will bet the flop, and check push most turns. this isnt really that hard. why would you check call 90 when you can bet 60, have a chance to win the pot outright, and get to see the turn cheaper than check calling 90? holla

[Paul Thomson]

I thought of the check raise all-in line on the turn, but I don't know what to make of it. What kind of hand is played that way? What would the villian put us on? It's such a confusing line that the villian might give up on a pair.

However, if the villian has a weak ace of a middle pair which I think is possible. They might check behind with the hopes of keeping the pot small and the intention of calling any bet on the river. At the same time, this would be the line that the villian would take, if they weren't at home and didn't want to fire another bullet on the turn.

I think if we lead the turn, we'll have a better idea of where we are on the river. If we lead for 150 and the villian makes a normal size raise, then we have the odds to call and try and stack them on the river. If the we lead out for 150 and the villian raises us all-in, then we're in a tough predicament and we'll probably have to fold.

However, the benefit of leading out for 150 is that it'll probably get any middle pair or continuation bluff bet from the flop to fold. At the same time, if our opponent calls, then we can almost surely put them on a decent ace. I'd say AQ or possibly AJ in this example.

And if that's the case, then if the river is a blank, we'll at least have the option of pushing them off if the hand and have it be convincing...but I'd have to think about it.

[Paul Thomson]

shillx and raptor-

What hands do you think fold to a check raise all-in that don't fold to a lead out bet for half the pot?