How big is your edge?

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
While this is fun to see, it's not really working out this way since poker probably has CONSIDERABLY less variance than 50/50 coinflips, im pretty sure that if you do a similar graph for, lets say, a dice with 6 outcomes where you win on 5 out of 6 and the total edge comes out as 0.5%, they wouldn't be anyway near this "random".

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... not so sure this is correct. I'm routinely flipping coins for 1k or 2k playing 6max 5/10 and 10/20, where my expected earnings, in G bucks, is probably about 3% of the flip.

Additionally, it's pretty complicated, as we're often making c-bets that don't work, calling in position with draws -- myriad conditions apply, and we'd really need to see a new stat from PT to get a good handle on it.

[AcTiOnJaCsOn]

this is pretty interesting, i suppose that rakeback makes our egde better though

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
for online play we're basically guessing until PT gives us a "total amount wagered" statistic -- or until someone plays one table and records everything by hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just export the hh's from pt, parse, calculate accurate std.

Maybe a bit more involved than that because the distribution of profits is probably not normal. But it's a good starting point. I was hoping you would do it bc I'm too lazy. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[_dave_]

[ QUOTE ]

Pokertracker does not give us enough information to determine what our edge is in poker. It won't tell us how much money we bet, total. This could be done by hand during live play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes it does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Many months ago in response to someones question I posted SQL to calculate your "edge" or maybe it was "ROI", cant remember but each is a function of the other.

Maybe it was Neon?

Not sure, but PT can certainly return us the total bet/total won ... which is what we need to calculate edge, no?

[Big_Jim]

It's not about "chance to win" it's about EV

[_dave_]

here it is:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5626450

It wasn't Neon I was responding to, it was in fact you, Lyric [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Is the SQL I posted way back when totally wrong?

[Big_Jim]

To elaborate, some very high EV situations can have a ton of variance, and result in very long losing streaks.

Easy/obvious example:
You are getting paid a billion to one on a million to one shot.

Your EV is huge, but you can have very very long streaks where you are losing.

While obviously extreme, most poker situations concern probabilities where you are getting large payoffs for situations that don't happen frequently, as opposed to the coinflip.

[g-p]

mines so [censored] big

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
here it is:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5626450

It wasn't Neon I was responding to, it was in fact you, Lyric [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Is the SQL I posted way back when totally wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot about this post. Thanks. I simply don't know how to use the code you wrote, and forgot to ask anyone who did.

Any chance you could tell us how to get the total amt bet number from our PT database without knowing anything about coding?

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
To elaborate, some very high EV situations can have a ton of variance, and result in very long losing streaks.

Easy/obvious example:
You are getting paid a billion to one on a million to one shot.

Your EV is huge, but you can have very very long streaks where you are losing.

While obviously extreme, most poker situations concern probabilities where you are getting large payoffs for situations that don't happen frequently, as opposed to the coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily true. I'm flipping coins all day.

For example, I raise and button three bets. I push all-in for 100bb. He calls with his range -- JJ+,AK.

My pushing range is QQ+, AK. My expected equity for this flip is 52.92%