NL25: Great, flopped bottom two on ace high board, right? - Page 2

Scuba Chuck · #11 03-30-2007, 08:24 AM

All right, I'll go through this one.

On the flop, I'm either WA/WB. I'll make my decision on the turn. Based on any normal hand range I put villain on, I'm likely a very good favorite against his range, and there aren't too many cards that really hurt me on the turn, so I'll know his hand by the turn.

There's clearly EVERY reason to shove/raise (believe me, I'm capable of doing this with worse) here just based on math, but villain bet $1.90 into a $9 pot. Donks are donks. This, IME, is a pretty big tell.

Board: Ad 6s 7c
Hand 0: 24.444% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 75.556% { 7d6d }

On the turn, that's one of two cards that concerns me the most. I now have lost a ton of equity in this hand, and this now is either a call or fold (these are my thoughts in game). The question about this being a fold is because I don't know how much more of a river bet I'm willing to call.

Board: Ad 6s 7c Kc
Hand 0: 48.019% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 51.981% { 7d6d }

So I called, and again, cards come as they come. There's only 4 kings and 3 aces in the unknown cards. That's only 7 cards. I'll live with those results. Not being results-oriented.

Hand 0: 100.000% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 00.000% { 7d6d }

Jouster777 · #12 03-30-2007, 08:38 AM

This is more "somewhat ahead/WB"
Board: Ad 6s 7c
Hand 0: 24.444% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 75.556% { 7d6d }

As we saw, 2-pair is a vulnerable hand. In addition, most of the range we beat pays us on the flop but that decreases dramatically on the turn (villains are semi-aware of the Baluga theorem too). I think you have to bet this flop for both information and extraction.

Scuba Chuck · #13 03-30-2007, 08:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop to 13, call a push.
Turn is ugly. I might check behind if possible. We don't look too well against his reraising range which is something like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ. We only beat AQ, QQ, JJ now. Although my odds calculater still gives us 50% equity (as opposed to 70% on the flop) against this range. We are even better, if we think he will reraise with TT preflop which isn't too uncommon. His flop bet looks like a scared KK-TT. So we can't narrow his range to an AA-suck-in-bet just because he went AI on the river...

As played: ez fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is pretty good.

You've done the math, you've put together a good hand range.

The pot is $9, villain bets $1.90.
Do you have any experience in these situations?
How does this bet change his hand range?
What will raising here do?
What's the best way to get the most chips in with us being the most ahead, after we consider the flop action?

Genz · #14 03-30-2007, 08:41 AM

You said that his weak bet is a pretty big tell. So what does it tell you? That he is a donk or that he is strong or weak or what? I agree with the rest of your post since it is exactly what I have calculated. I would have pushed my big edge on the flop more, though. So I'm interested of what nature your tell is that it makes you just call (slowplay to let him hang himself?).

Scuba Chuck · #15 03-30-2007, 08:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is more "somewhat ahead/WB"
Board: Ad 6s 7c
Hand 0: 24.444% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 75.556% { 7d6d }

As we saw, 2-pair is a vulnerable hand. In addition, most of the range we beat pays us on the flop but that decreases dramatically on the turn (villains are semi-aware of the Baluga theorem too). I think you have to bet this flop for both information and extraction.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly does betting the flop for information do for you?

As an aside, I'm not that concerned about how vulnerable our hand is. It's roughly equal to the following preflop situation.

Hand 0: 73.596% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 26.404% { AQs, AQo }

Scuba Chuck · #16 03-30-2007, 08:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You said that his weak bet is a pretty big tell. So what does it tell you? That he is a donk or that he is strong or weak or what? I agree with the rest of your post since it is exactly what I have calculated. I would have pushed my big edge on the flop more, though. So I'm interested of what nature your tell is that it makes you just call (slowplay to let him hang himself?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your instincts are correct. So, how do you get the most out of the JJ-KK hands, and still stack AK and AQ? How many cards are really scare cards to us? An A on the turn is the worst card. To me, a K is the second worst, but mathematically it's equivalent to Qs. That means 2s through Js (that's 36 cards once you remove the two 6s and 7s). I'm willing to peel a card with that many "good" cards for us. In general, I don't like to slow play 2 pair hands (for the reasons others have already given above). But on a board like this one, where we have a very defined preflop range, it's not bad, and arguably better if we think that calling will induce a 2nd barrel from other hands that might otherwise fold if we raise.

Jouster777 · #17 03-30-2007, 08:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What exactly does betting the flop for information do for you?

[/ QUOTE ] Obviously the specifics are all highly dependent on your read but in general if he goes nuts on the flop we have a decision to make but it is probably better to make it here than to get extracted upon on later streets while the range we beat shrinks (big time RIO situation). If he just calls we are a bit more likely to be ahead and we have likely generated the option of checking behind on turn if we choose to take it. If he folds its not a bad result.

I didn't understand what you are getting at with the AK vs. AQ situation. Some similarities in % differences but when AK is ahead it crushes AQ unlike in this situation with very bad RIO.

Scuba Chuck · #18 03-30-2007, 09:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What exactly does betting the flop for information do for you?

[/ QUOTE ] Obviously the specifics are all highly dependent on your read but in general if he goes nuts on the flop we have a decision to make but it is probably better to make it here than to get extracted upon on later streets while the range we beat shrinks (big time RIO situation). If he just calls we are a bit more likely to be ahead and we have likely generated the option of checking behind on turn if we choose to take it. If he folds its not a bad result.

I didn't understand what you are getting at with the AK vs. AQ situation. Some similarities in % differences but when AK is ahead it crushes AQ unlike in this situation with very bad RIO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bold above is where we disagree A TON.

What's a rio?

So, in a vacumm, you've just insinuated you'd rather have

Hand 0: 73.596% { XX }
Hand 1: 26.404% { XX }

rather than

Hand 1: 75.556% { XX }
Hand 0: 24.444% { XX }

Is that correct?

Everlong · #19 03-30-2007, 09:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You said that his weak bet is a pretty big tell. So what does it tell you? That he is a donk or that he is strong or weak or what?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key issue in hands like these. Trying to "read" his bet-sizing here is IMO futile.

1. Not only is it impossible to say (readless) if weak bet means weak or strong
2. There is no way of knowing if VILLAIN's perception of strong is correct. Perhaps he thinks A9s is strong on this board. We don't know.

There are still so many "naked-ace-stacker-offers" out there I am more then happy to felt here and if need be double this villains online bankroll...

Jouster777 · #20 03-30-2007, 09:21 AM

Assuming the range you gave him, if he folds he had JJ/QQ. Extracting from those hands is going to be meager while risking having the board pair. Taking the dead money here is not bad.

RIO is reverse implied odds. You have a vulnerable made hand with little chance of improving while villain's range is likely to improve. I'm trying not to be results oriented but this board is the extreme of how 2-pair becomes worthless.