$114 AK on the bubble

[Luisgallo]

I really think calling is horrible here and pushing is the only play given the read.
calling will simply put us in the position of check/folding any non A/K flop, also if we hit are we going to bet or push? What is he going to call with?
I push.

[ryanghall]

[ QUOTE ]
calling will simply put us in the position of check/folding any non A/K flop

[/ QUOTE ]

So? This isn't exactly the end of the world.

Ryan

[Luisgallo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
calling will simply put us in the position of check/folding any non A/K flop

[/ QUOTE ]

So? This isn't exactly the end of the world.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't get your point.
How would you proceed with the hand, given position and stack sizes, if an A or a K drops on the flop?
Leading with a bet, unless vs a total dumb, will make villain fold.
Probably check raising will give you some more money.
But I still the downside of wasting 2BB bigger then the upside of calling while pushing is EV+.

[TheSwede]

Because of your read, I don´t think that pushing is bad.
He can´t call unless he has a premium hand, because of the player in the SB. He don´t want to go out before him, when he has such a large stack.

[davisreatti]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just calling because of your read. Expecting to be called by much worse hands I would think negates your big stack advantage here simply because you are only slightly above his stack. If he calls wide here and we are usually 60:40 we are losing this hand a fair amount which could likely lead to bubbling.

Call and get aggressive if you connect with the flop, otherwise I wouldn't risk the tournament against someone who will be calling very wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this play a lot.

[typically]

I like folding, you don't need to risk your big stack and put yourself out when there are two such small stacks here... Pick your battles =)

According to ICM, even if you assume that he folds to your push 40% of the time, calls and loses 35% of the time, and calls and wins only 15% of the time, you should still fold by a nice margin...

Hopefully someone can independently verify this; it's my first ICM calculation [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bumpking]

Isn't this ICM 101? Look at the scenarios. To start with, if you fold you have an ICM of 307.0

1. Your ICM when you win is 423.7 and when you lose is 0. If you knew for a fact that he was calling and his range was any 2 cards, then AKo vs. any 2 is 65.3%. So... (.653)*(423.7) = 276.88. That's WAY less than your folding ICM of 307.0.

2. Let's say he actually may fold. When he does fold your ICM is 336.9. If he folds 25% of the time and we keep the lame assumption that his calling range is any 2, then you've got:

he folds: (.25)*(336.9)
+
we showdown: (.75)*(276.88)
------------------------------
TOTAL: 291.73

COME ON, OBVIOUS FOLD!

Take the above example but say he folds 50% of the time...

he folds: (.50)*(336.9)
+
we showdown: (.50)*(276.88)
------------------------------
TOTAL: 306.79

EVEN THIS IS STILL A FOLD! AND WE'RE ASSUMING HIS CALLING RANGE WAS ANY 2!!!!

-BK

[typically]

If you assume he folds 60% of the time then you're getting closer to +$EV...

[Pudge714]

bumpking,
Your assumption that villain is calling 50-75% of shoves is really wrong. Also against 100% isn't the best range as a lot of hands villain will call with are ax and kx which he have dominated.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has a very loose raising range, but is bad and will probably call with a lot of hands that he shouldn't. I think pushing is the only play but I'm not so sure.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t4390)
UTG (t5430)
Button (t2200)
SB (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]


Pushing is standard of course, but if hes really so crazy that he will call with lots of stuff, including low pairs, then you might be better of calling.