Odd phenomenon - many very tight Omaha/8 players = bad winrates.

[MotTrieuDong]

Perhaps bad post flop play?

[WMB]

I think this is a fairly important thread that needs further discussion. a while back i tried to start a thread on this issue. from personal experience, (around 4000 hours of live play), to win while playing very tight, you need to play in games where your big hands get paid off well. my gut feeling tells me somewhere around 6 players to flop, 4 to turn and 3 to showdown. in these type of games, you can win strictly by playing top hands, and then playing the nuts postflop. when the game tightens up, and better players are in the game, you really have to be able to play well post flop to win. also, there are many spots preflop where you can loosen up and play less than premium hands especially if you have a good handle on how your opponents play.

[yukoncpa]

Hi Sweetluckyme,

I have some questions

1) The person with a vpip of 16 - is he playing 2-4 or smaller or is he playing higher than 2-4? You describe him as tight, solid, and aggressive. I’d be surprised if this style is a long term loser at the small games. At least at AP, tight players at the small games get paid off constantly by multiple opponents.

2) In your data base, what vpip range is winners, per number of players? Is there a link to a stats thread for limit o8 on this forum? I’m new to this forum.

3) Could he be overly tight for the very reason that he is on a losing streak? In other words, When a person is on a losing streak, his vpip would naturally go down because a) he’s not catching as many hands and b) he’s conscientiously tightening up because he is losing. For example, at 6 max holdem, my vpip over a couple of hundred thousand hands is 25. Yet when I was on a 20,000 hand losing streak, my vpip for that specific streak was 19.

Thanks

[SacredChao]

It may have to do with other another thing as well. I've found split pot omaha games the easiest to get stupid on. I mean really stupid. You only need to chase a bad hand two or three times in a session to wipe out your winnings. All that needs to happen is for you to be a combination of card dead and flop dead for a few hours at a juicy loose table for the frustration to kick in. You are watching huge pots being won by some amazingly bad hand choices the whole time.

Suddenly, third nut low with a set of eights starts to look really good even if you flopped it while on the big blind. You've trapped yourself in the hand because you haven't played a hand for three hours. You get to the turn and two out of 4 get really aggressive. Because of the frustration you look at a big pot and hope.

It's happened to me and I've seen it happen to others. I watched one good omaha player I know litterally transform over the evening last night on a really bad night for him. I seriously thought it was a different person sitting in his seat because he looked so disheveled at the end of the night.

The temptation in loose games to go for a multi player pot can be overwhelming if you get frustrated.

Another example was last night for me. I play a mixed 20/40 usually. I hadn't had a hand to play for a few hours.
On one round of omaha had I played every hand I would have scooped the pot every time. But they were all bizarro hands. One I didn't even think was worth two chips on the small blind. It hit a full house. How bad was it? something like a 2 7 9 Q unsuited. I hit one hand on that round because I limped on the BB. Also a bizarro hand that I might have tossed if there was a raise. Other than that I Hit one or two big hands that won me nice pots. However my profits were chipped away because I got stupid and chased on one or two other hands.

I don't think that it's being too tight that is the problem in itself. It's that there is a certain level of tightness that can make you frustrated too easily if you've been playing too long without playing a hand.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i don't really ahve a big sample size in LO8, but intuitively speaking, you could easily be a BIG winner playing under a 22 vpip at smaller stakes because your opponents conversely play too many hands and play them very poorly. however, when you move up playing that style,you find that the tight style you are accustomed to is not as effective because you become very easily readable and your opponents don't play nearly as bad, if not even better than you, hence the lower or even losing winrate.

however despite all that, i would be surprised that <22vpip players are *significant* losers simply because of that. it most likely stems from other things, mainly hand reading and adjusting postflop.

[yukoncpa]

[ QUOTE ]
don't really ahve a big sample size in LO8, but intuitively speaking, you could easily be a BIG winner playing under a 22 vpip at smaller stakes because your opponents conversely play too many hands and play them very poorly. however, when you move up playing that style,you find that the tight style you are accustomed to is not as effective because you become very easily readable and your opponents don't play nearly as bad, if not even better than you, hence the lower or even losing winrate.

however despite all that, i would be surprised that <22vpip players are *significant* losers simply because of that. it most likely stems from other things, mainly hand reading and adjusting postflop.

Post Extras





[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Chris Daddy Cool,

Assuming a low limit game, If the player is very hand selective ( tight ) and is at all trying to play correctly after the flop, he should be at least a small winner in the long run.

Here’s my own quote from below, which I believe answers this question:

[ QUOTE ]
When a person is on a losing streak, his vpip would naturally go down because a) he’s not catching as many hands and b) he’s conscientiously tightening up because he is losing. For example, at 6 max holdem, my vpip over a couple of hundred thousand hands is 25. Yet when I was on a 20,000 hand losing streak, my vpip for that specific streak was 19.


[/ QUOTE ]

I’ll go further and say, that in my holdem games, when I looked at specific 20,000 hand winning streaks, my vpip was as high ( over 20k hands ) as 31, even though my ave. over approximately 300,000 hands was 25.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I’ll go further and say, that in my holdem games, when I looked at specific 20,000 hand winning streaks, my vpip was as high ( over 20k hands ) as 31, even though my ave. over approximately 300,000 hands was 25.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is easily explained as running hot or cold. if you are getting really good cards at a higher frequency, naturally your vpip and winrate will increase. when you hit long periods of bad and/or normal cards, you will have a slightly lower vpip and also lower winrate.

[yukoncpa]

[ QUOTE ]
this is easily explained as running hot or cold. if you are getting really good cards at a higher frequency, naturally your vpip and winrate will increase. when you hit long periods of bad and/or normal cards, you will have a slightly lower vpip and also lower winrate.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is my whole point. Very low vpip’s are a result of running bad, not a cause of running bad.