Another Sit n Go Question

[ChrisV]

Huge autocall. I'm sure enough that I won't bother with the math.

[RobNottsUk]

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I'm sure it will happen now and again, but I think it's rare a person would do conciously do that here,
believing that anything but a push would be suspicious...


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Not sure about that, I tend to Push with everything, if I'm in Push mode.
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If you lose the hand, then unfortunately you'll be All In on the next SB. The shorties have just enough to outlast you, unless the blinds are just about to rise.

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actually I see the (post loss) chip stack sizes and blind positions as being somewhat beneficial to us...


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Blinds 300/600
2 opponents have stacks of tc 1,000.
We are left with tc 900, if we lose.

Next SB, we post tc 300 without fold equity, as the BB outstacks us.

The tc 1,000 players can fold BB & SB, and we're AI on next BB!

May be I've made a slip, but I suspect the OP chose those numbers carefully! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Prodigy54321]

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Not sure about that, I tend to Push with everything, if I'm in Push mode.


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like I said, I don't think that pushing there to be deceptive is a good decision..so although I'm sure that some poeple will indeed push there, I don't think that a "smart" person would push there...

I think you kind of have to be in a quasi intelligent state to push AA there for deceptive purposes..although I'm sure some people are in that state..

or maybe it's that I am in that state [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Blinds 300/600
2 opponents have stacks of tc 1,000.
We are left with tc 900, if we lose.

Next SB, we post tc 300 without fold equity, as the BB outstacks us.

The tc 1,000 players can fold BB & SB, and we're AI on next BB!

May be I've made a slip, but I suspect the OP chose those numbers carefully!

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I completely understand that they can fold until we are allin, but what I am saying is that they won't always do that..and not because they aren't making good decisions..it is because they ARE making good decisions...there are many many situations where there will be (and should be) an allin between other player before it gets around to us..and even when it does get around to us if we fold, we can still win the hand..and go to a t1200 stack against two t100 stacks..

the bottom line is that if we put this into one of those nift programs like SNGPT, we get an answer...and I think the calling ranger given out is slightly narrower than what it should be since the program doesn't handle things like the things we are talking about here..and I think that what we are talking about is actually slightly beneficial to our potential post loss position.

[RobNottsUk]

The reason I do "Push with AA", is to deter future calls when I'm stealing. Hint, I show hands sometimes! But also, many of my opponents call far too much, so I don't gain as much as you probably by being "deceptive" and limping.

Against a short stack, when big stacked, I'm more likely to limp and tease bet the flop, or call their pf raise.

[Prodigy54321]

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The reason I do "Push with AA", is to deter future calls when I'm stealing. Hint, I show hands sometimes! But also, many of my opponents call far too much, so I don't gain as much as you probably by being "deceptive" and limping.

Against a short stack, when big stacked, I'm more likely to limp and tease bet the flop, or call their pf raise.

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The reason I do "Push with AA", is to deter future calls when I'm stealing.

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that's fair.

I'm certainly not advocating completing..if that is what you got from my posts.

[UMTerp]

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Huge autocall. I'm sure enough that I won't bother with the math.

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[drunkencowboy]

i take off my wristwatch and my shoes and throw them on the table along with my chips.

[DesertCat]

Let's assume SB flashes his cards to us (A2o). So we know exact odds. Right now our expectation is about 40% of the prize pool (average of 1st & 2nd), calling and winning pushes us up close to 50%, for a gain of almost 10% of PP. Calling and losing reduces our PP share to around 5%.

So if we call...

70% of the time we are +10% of the PP.
30% of the time we are -35% of the PP.

I'm doing this all with estimates off the top of my head but it looks to me like it's a negative EV call (-3.5% of PP)against any Ace. And remember that two shorties did not push, implying that they didn't have an ace, slightly increasing the likelihood that SB does have one.

Of course, SB will push with hand that have no ace. It's the percentage of time SB doesn't have an ace that determines whether it's a good call or not, but we need a bunch of hands without an ace to make up for the many hands with one. Any ace is 28.6%, suited is 33%, etc. A medium suited connector is 22.5%.

I think this is just one of those extreme examples where payout considerations (tEV) steam roll cEV.

[Prodigy54321]

we should still be calling if he flashes A2o or any hand for that matter that is not AA...

[drunkencowboy]

its obvious he doesnt have aces. instacall. whats the problem? another question that only confuses David and no body else...