AKs, all streets.

[SABR42]

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I'm just not sure the math justifies a call here. if he does have KK-JJ spiking an A will kill your action, you both lose to the rake if he has AK (if you don't get pushed off the pot on the flop when you both miss) and you will get killed when you hit a K and he has AA (or KK) or the few times you hit an A and he has AA.

Before the rest of you jump at me about this being a bad fold, please include some math in your post.

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I don't have the exact math, but I think pre-flop is a call, because you underestimate the times we flop an ace and still extract a decent amount of value from KK/QQ.

I'm checking the flop almost always in this situation, regardless of whether I flop a pair or not. Checking when an ace (or king) flops can be deceptive and get us a call from an underpair later on. Being suited also makes a small difference here.

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EV doesn't care what we 'think'...


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That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying I disagree with your ev calculations because you underestimate the value we can extract when we are ahead on the flop/turn.

Also, since the pot is 3-way, he is less likely to c-bet a whiffed AK into two players OOP.

And where do you get 5% in rake?! Rake is capped at $3.

[NL__Fool]

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I don't mind a fold pre-flop because of the rake

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The rake should be the last thing on yourt mind here. Your talking a difference of what, .40 cents?

[raistlinx]

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I don't have the exact math, but I think pre-flop is a call, because you underestimate the times we flop an ace and still extract a decent amount of value from KK/QQ.

I'm checking the flop almost always in this situation, regardless of whether I flop a pair or not. Checking when an ace (or king) flops can be deceptive and get us a call from an underpair later on. Being suited also makes a small difference here.

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EV doesn't care what we 'think'...


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That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying I disagree with your ev calculations because you underestimate the value we can extract when we are ahead on the flop/turn.

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Ok... why don't you show some of your calculations?

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Also, since the pot is 3-way, he is less likely to c-bet a whiffed AK into two players OOP.

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So you will bet into two people with a missed AK if they check to you?

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And where do you get 5% in rake?! Rake is capped at $3.

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Yes but you need to reach a pot of $60 for it to cap out. Anything before that the winner pays 5% of the pot. The point is with AK vs and underpair you have less that 50% equity and ANY rake you pay when you win just cuts into that.

Feel free to do up some calcuations but I believe playing AK to a 3bet pf is marginal at best if you always play it perfectly but that you will lose to much those times you are up against AA/KK and hit your hand.

At these levels you can find much better spots to get your money into the pot.

[raistlinx]

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I don't mind a fold pre-flop because of the rake

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The rake should be the last thing on yourt mind here. Your talking a difference of what, .40 cents?

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5% of the pot (until it reaches $60) which cuts into an already marginal EV call.

If you don't understand the significance of the rake at these levels you might wand to sit down with Pokerstove and look over some marginal plays that become -EV because of it at these micro levels.

[NL__Fool]

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% of the pot (until it reaches $60) which cuts into an already marginal EV call.

If you don't understand the significance of the rake at these levels you might wand to sit down with Pokerstove and look over some marginal plays that become -EV because of it at these micro levels

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I'm sorry I don't understand your logic here.

You are telling me that your are folding here because at the end of this hand if you win, you will be paying a max of $3 in rake instead of the $1.50 or so that you would have paid in a moderate size pot of around $30 if you were not 3 bet?

Please tell me you are joking?

The extra $1.50 you are paying in what is going to end up being at least a $50 pot should have absolutely no factor in your deciding to call or fold preflop.

[NL__Fool]

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Put it this way, if he is good he can stack us (or at least get a good chunk of our stack) if an A hits and he has AA, he can also get a good chunk of our stack if a K hits and he has AA/KK. But what hands do we get a good chunk of his stack with? Being out of position he is going to cbet a flop just about 100% of the time meaning we will fold our AK when we both miss.

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I may not agree with you on the rake but I have also come to the same conclusion as you in reagrds to AK preflop.

I haven't played AK to a 3 bet in the past month unless it was suited in position or not.

You have AK and you get 3 bet preflop. You are getting 1 at the most 2 (against very bad players) streets of value out of your AK when they hold 1010-QQ and an A or a K flops , unless they flopped a set. Sometimes you will get 0 streets of value out of these hands when a flop like AK2 comes.

You will be getting a ton of action against players who have your crushed holding AA-KK.

I don't think calling the extra $10 here preflop is going to net you enough $$ in return for making this call when you factor in the # of times you get action when your are crushed

I will call AKs for the flush possibilty.

[NL__Fool]

You have AK and raise in MP to $4 your are 3 bet by the button who makes it $14. You call the extra $10 and the flop is HU $28 in the pot (not inclding the rake)

Possible Scenerios

227 flop You check villain bets 2/3 pot and you fold (you lose $14)

Same flop except your are in position. Villain makes a cont bet and you fold and lose $14

Same flop you are in position villain checks (almost never after he has shown aggresion preflop) has AK and you make a cont bet and you pick up a profit of $14

K27 flop You bet $21 and villain is holding AA or KK. You are losing a ton here if not your entire stack.

A27 flop You bet $21 and villain is holding AA. You are losing a ton here if not your entire stack.



A27 flop You bet $21 and villain is holding 1010-KK Villain may call your bet or he may fold but almost no one is calling a turn bet which should be about $50 unless they have your crushed. So you are making anywhere from $0-21 + the $14 preflop which = $0-$35

K27 flop same scenario as above, you are getting 1 street of value here $0-35

I dont think AK is woth playing against a 3-bet anymore

[raistlinx]

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% of the pot (until it reaches $60) which cuts into an already marginal EV call.

If you don't understand the significance of the rake at these levels you might wand to sit down with Pokerstove and look over some marginal plays that become -EV because of it at these micro levels

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I'm sorry I don't understand your logic here.

You are telling me that your are folding here because at the end of this hand if you win, you will be paying a max of $3 in rake instead of the $1.50 or so that you would have paid in a moderate size pot of around $30 if you were not 3 bet?

Please tell me you are joking?

The extra $1.50 you are paying in what is going to end up being at least a $50 pot should have absolutely no factor in your deciding to call or fold preflop.

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Ok, this is what I am saying:

56,506,032 games 0.060 secs 941,767,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.722% 40.65% 13.07% 22971117 7385167.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 46.278% 33.21% 13.07% 18764580 7385167.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

This is your equity against someone who will 3bet with AQ+ and QQ+ with EQUAL frequency. Of course we know you will see AQ much less here so your equity is closer to something like this:

41,095,296 games 0.005 secs 8,219,059,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.576% 28.44% 17.14% 11686743 7042716.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 54.424% 37.29% 17.14% 15323121 7042716.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

Here I just took AQos out. As you can see we are already behind pre-flop (no surprise). Now before I talk about the rake you have to realize that these numbers imply you and your opponent play the hand perfectly after the flop by maximizing when you are ahead and minimizing loss when behind (pokerstove is really meant for ai situations where no one makes mistakes since there is no more betting) but since neither of you will play perfectly you know what will happen... you will lose more when he has AA/KK and you hit than you will gain when he has QQ/AQ and you hit UNLESS YOU HAVE A READ (see below). You may win a bit with a flush/flush draw but hitting the flush has reverse implied odds anyway.

So we see that calling the 3bet is marginal at best... but now consider the extra effect of the rake. When the rake takes away 5% of your profit your EV decreses even further making it even more of a marginal play.

And in case you are wondering about the difference between AKS and AKos:
41,095,296 games 0.050 secs 821,905,920 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.737% 24.36% 18.37% 10012619 7550164.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 57.263% 38.89% 18.37% 15982348 7550164.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

But there is one more interesting point. If you are playing live and can read your opponent very well you can call and slow play when he pushes too hard when he has QQ/JJ and you hit, plus you can save money when he has AA/KK and you are behind. But on the internet you just can't pick up these tells. Gotta fold it to a three bet without a read.

[Landlord79]

Bump^^^^^^^^

I played AK into a 3 bet 2 weeks ago at a live game. I made quad aces against a guys aces full of kings. I baited him into losing his stack and showed a clear profit. This is of course a rarity of winners, but I can't see letting AK go to a small reraise. You also need to figure straight possiblities into the mix.

By 3 betting, the villain reveals more about his hand and is closer to playing his hand more face up than we are. If we narrow the villain down to a tight range, we should be able to take any 2 cards into them and show a profit. Remember that 30% of this game is math, the rest is mostly psychology.

(I like your point, I just felt the need to argue the other side.)

[relayerdave]

This is an excellent discussion. Thanks for all the thought and effort...