ciaffone deep stack CP article

[Peter666]

In practice, one must ask how likely their opponents are going all-in with less than a set themselves.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
In practice, one must ask themselves how likely their opponents are going all-in with less than a set themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

wasn't sure about ciaffone's response.. seemed really quick. did he mean you'd win AND stack your opponent 80% of time? (that you hit)... doesn't seem right. and seems +EV (as poster's #'s show)

it is so opponent-dependent. how many players are going to get stacked for 200+ BB with TPTK? i'm inclined to say very few, even fish. 2 pair (opponent) gets more interesting in terms of stacking 200BB. and next is all trips and then low sets (of course, opponent trips gives you full house)...

how common are two pair on a non-paired board? anyone know?

[phydaux]

I don't understand. Bob is the one who wrote the Rule of 5 & 10:

"OOP when faced with calling a pre-Flop raise, you have a clear call if the raise is for less than 5% of your stack, a clear flod if the raise is for more than 10% of your stack, and between 5% and 10% use your best judgement."

If both the raiser and I have stacks of 150BB or more and it's just 3-5BB back to me, I'm calling with my pocket six's. All day, every day.

[smbruin22]

i still don't understand the email... but as per phydaux' 5/10, i think ciaffone would think that hitting a set on 3's on flop is great if everyone is 60-80BB (3-4X PFR times 20) . but above that it gets dangerous. basically, non-linearity.... EDIT: more thought... small stack, 33 = mediocre. medium stack = great. deep stack = poor-mediocre. mega-deep = terrible.. basically as the stacks get massive (500BB for instance), you need to have the nuts on all-in??

[Matt Flynn]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand. Bob is the one who wrote the Rule of 5 & 10:

"OOP when faced with calling a pre-Flop raise, you have a clear call if the raise is for less than 5% of your stack, a clear flod if the raise is for more than 10% of your stack, and between 5% and 10% use your best judgement."



[/ QUOTE ]


that's a bad rule. absent netting some money from stealing, you pay too high a price using 5%-10%.

we discuss set-over-set in detail in an appendix in volume 2 of PNL. that section was written a few months ago.

[phydaux]

[ QUOTE ]
we discuss set-over-set in detail in an appendix in volume 2 of PNL. that section was written a few months ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

And won't be published for nearly a year.

Damn you Matt! You're a tease! Just like all those [censored] in high school, putting out to all the football players but would they go out with me? No way! Well, I saw to it they got theirs on prom night...

Um, so Matt, when is vol I coming out again?

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
that's a bad rule. absent netting some money from stealing, you pay too high a price using 5%-10%.

we discuss set-over-set in detail in an appendix in volume 2 of PNL. that section was written a few months ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

even though i love ciaffone's stuff, strikes me some of the range is way too shallow. 10% on a 3.5x (to 3.5) raise = 35BB. i'd want alot more than that to hit trips. i realize that's the low end.... of course, loosely paraphrasing matt, with position, you could possibly steal the pot (i thought phydaux had the rule as OOP, so i'm not totally sure)

[phydaux]

Well, IIRC Ciaffone wrote is as a rule for calling raises with speculative hands when out of position. I don't have my copy of Pot Limit & No Limit with me, I'm at work (frikin' double shifts, grumble grumble...). I'll grab my copy when I get home and post the passage word for word so we can see.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
In practice, one must ask how likely their opponents are going all-in with less than a set themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to bust your opponent to make calling with a pocket pair profitable.

[Leopard]

From memory the 5 / 10 rule applies to calling raises with speculative hands when you have good relative position - ie position on a single opponent or good position to the raiser in a multiway pot, i.e to his right.