When My Turn Came, I was Ashamed. FT NL 100.

[Paul Thomson]

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1 - lead
2 - i think i stack his set cause i dont see myself folding

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At best we're against a limped AA or 87s.

Don't payoff nits with two pair. They're not bluffing often enough in this type of spot.

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what makes u think he's a nit?

[terp]

i like a lead but as played this is a fold

please tell your wife that she has great advice available right there!

[orange]

hi set.

btw, you need to post more. and tell your wife to start posting herself, we'll be nice.

[Grunch]

There's a difference between the guy who never folds when he is he aggressor and the guy who never folds period. If ths is the guy who never folds when he is the aggressor, nihan. If not, I lead the flop for a bunch.

People afraid of sets -- yes he could have a set here. But there are so many overpairs he could have and play just this way. Not only do I not fold, I have to restrain myself from jumping up & down and cheering when I call.

[sc24evr]

Ya I agree that a set here is highly improbably ,especially since you have yourself an 8 or a 7, i have the feeling he slowplayed aces or kings hoping for a raise, and then couldnt let go of his aces on the flop

[wrschultz]

I'm leading the flop, but I'm also not folding to this push here ever...

[Better Than U]

I fold. I like money.

[epdaws]

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People afraid of sets -- yes he could have a set here. But there are so many overpairs he could have and play just this way.

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Grunch,

I don't think there are "so many" overpairs he could play this way. With these stats, I assume he's raising TT-QQ always in this spot. He might limp AA or KK for deception, cause that's what the clever kids do. But I don't think the range, after applying Bayes' Theorem, tilts heavily in the favor of an overpair.

[epdaws]

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Ya I agree that a set here is highly improbably ,especially since you have yourself an 8 or a 7

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Again, Bayes' Theorem. Don't go strictly by the basic likelihood of him having the case 7s or 8s, let alone pocket 2s. Bayes' Theorem changes the equation.

[FishSticks]

Definitely lead the flop.

As played, what the hell kind of line is this from an overpair out of a seemingly tight and normal villain on this dry board? This guy doesn't have a draw, either - I just can't see a 16/8 open limping like 56 UTG.

This sucks, but it looks like a fold to me.

epdaws - good to see you on the boards. You still here in Rochester over at WHAM? Where do you post these days?