Flopped low straight deepstacked 5/10

[Mark Krieger]

I had the exact same hand come up at the Borgata about a year ago, I have been meaning to write about it, you did for me. I had 97h, I was in late position, I limped behind about 4 people, I was playing real tight, I flopped the lowend str8 to JT8. One guy to my right raised, I reraised (I had everyone covered by a bit), he reraised me big, I folded, I felt I was drawing dead enough and dodging paired boards at best, one other guy called, the big reraiser had JT, he lost to other guys flopped set (of 8's). Turn and river were dead cards, like a 2 and 3. I was pissed at myself, but Mr. JT *looked* real tough (he had only played about 3 rounds) but he WAY overvalued his cards. Oh well, you never know, tough spot. I guess after reading this, and after knowing I find it easy to correctly fold live and less so online, I think a fold is best.

Mark

[shagarty]

Heh, yeah that's the situation I was hoping I was in, but really I should have folded, because basically I only get called by Q9, maybe a set of jacks, though he would have raised jacks. So basically I'm looking at a few scenarios, fold and lose 350 but save risking another 4200, go all in and win probably a max of 1800, MAYBE double up, but unlikely, and I would have to dodge a board pair. So looking back, even though I could have been good, the EV is just not there.

[ QUOTE ]
I had the exact same hand come up at the Borgata about a year ago, I have been meaning to write about it, you did for me. I had 97h, I was in late position, I limped behind about 4 people, I was playing real tight, I flopped the lowend str8 to JT8. One guy to my right raised, I reraised (I had everyone covered by a bit), he reraised me big, I folded, I felt I was drawing dead enough and dodging paired boards at best, one other guy called, the big reraiser had JT, he lost to other guys flopped set (of 8's). Turn and river were dead cards, like a 2 and 3. I was pissed at myself, but Mr. JT *looked* real tough (he had only played about 3 rounds) but he WAY overvalued his cards. Oh well, you never know, tough spot. I guess after reading this, and after knowing I find it easy to correctly fold live and less so online, I think a fold is best.

Mark

[/ QUOTE ]

[cheet]

so I take it you pushed and he had Q9?

[Johnes Benjamin]

very tough situation. my thought is that you have to fold. you laid out the situations, they just dont add up to a call. hes either got you [censored] with Q9, or 97 possibly 97d, in which case your hoping for a chop--immensely negative expectation. those seem as likely if not moreso than a set or top 2, and since you will lose a reasonable percent of the time against those it just seems like there isnt anything to gain from sticking around (except of course your 350, which isnt enough to cancel out -EV against aforementioned possible holdings)

doesn't seem like a good spot to bluff to me with 2 raisers behind; few times in a hundred hes bluffing doesnt make it worth your stack

[hoyasaxa]

The bet screams "im trying to drive out a draw." Top two or same hand probably. I push on flop.

[lowpockets]

Such a sick sick spot here man. I have played this game several times and I guess you are looking a situation that is somewhat read dependent. Can you give some more information on the villian here?

You mention that he is capable of making moves, but damn that is a big raise to 1500. I think his range is probably damn close to 50% Q9... But I can think of a couple other hands here that a weak player could over value.

Sounds like you called/pushed and he had Q9?

[shagarty]

Yeah I pushed and he had Q9. I knew he would push turn if I called, unless maybe he was really afraid of a diamond, but at that point he probably pushes anyway and hopes to drive out a small flush, at least at the end he said he would have pushed any turn, i believe him. Now that I thought it all out I should have folded, definitely negative EV, unless I have a much better read than I had.

[lowpockets]

Bummer - I liked your analysis of your best case scenarios not being too good and your worst case scenarios leaving you almost dead.