Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?

[daryn]

haha even i think i will win a bracelet eventually

[NickMPK]

[ QUOTE ]
How many pros, besides Hellmuth play in as many events as DN? How many pros brag about their ability as much as DN? His attempts to outplay every player, every hand just don't fly in large events like the WSOP. It might work in a Circuit event in Tunica, but any other bracelets he aquiries will be in prop bets or ebay.

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You know he mahad two top-10 finishes at the WSOP in bracelet events last year (not counting the ToC), and made a pretty deep run the the main event, right? I think two final tables will be about average for him, and every few years he will get a bracelet.

[nanoshark]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll bet you anything he wins another bracelet in his lifetime.
I will bet you every dime i ever make. I'm serious. anything you want, your cash, your bike, your ken griffey rookie card, anything- if you think he won't win a single bracelet over the next decade, with his range of skills in every game, not just hold em, and with the different mixed events they're holding, you're crazy.

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I have a Jason Kidd special edition rookie, but I am a big fan of Griffey. I have a better shot of winning a bracelet in the next 10 yrs and I'm broke. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think that would be a better prop bet, since I don't want to wait 50 yrs for DN to stop playing poker before I get paid. All jokes aside, I would consider making a bet for this year's WSOP if you're interested. Maybe you can get Danny to cover your losses. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[nanoshark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How many pros, besides Hellmuth play in as many events as DN? How many pros brag about their ability as much as DN? His attempts to outplay every player, every hand just don't fly in large events like the WSOP. It might work in a Circuit event in Tunica, but any other bracelets he aquiries will be in prop bets or ebay.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know he mahad two top-10 finishes at the WSOP in bracelet events last year (not counting the ToC), and made a pretty deep run the the main event, right? I think two final tables will be about average for him, and every few years he will get a bracelet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot about the ToC. I am of the opinion that the ToC should only have bracelet winners from the previous year or better yet have it at the end of the WSOP ME like I think they did the 1st time. But, since my question doesn't exclude that event I would have to include it as part of the question.

To clarify, Circuit events don't count.

[gobboboy]

If you say that Negreanu isn't going to win another bracelet in his lifetime then it's absolutely impossible to predict that anyone will win a bracelet in their lifetime, simply because Negreanu is head and shoulders above 99% of the pros out there right now. I definitely think he has a bigger chance of winning one than anyone else, so he's +bEV imo.

[nanoshark]

I agree that DN is a tremendous player, but I think Hellmuth has a better chance. However, this year might be DN best (last) chance of winning one. The field should be reduced from last year's numbers, which improves his chances. I really think people are under estimating how much harder it is to win a bracelet nowadays.

This may sound counter-intuitive, but being the best tournament player in a field of +3k may be a disadvantage for winning a tournament. I'm sure he'll cash in a few tourneys, but he won't win any this year or 30 years down the road. It will be interesting to see how he plays with the starting chip increase.

[JuntMonkey]

Just do math and you'll see that on average he'll win one within 25-30 years, and that's being a little conservative.

[NickMPK]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that DN is a tremendous player, but I think Hellmuth has a better chance. However, this year might be DN best (last) chance of winning one. The field should be reduced from last year's numbers, which improves his chances. I really think people are under estimating how much harder it is to win a bracelet nowadays.

This may sound counter-intuitive, but being the best tournament player in a field of +3k may be a disadvantage for winning a tournament. I'm sure he'll cash in a few tourneys, but he won't win any this year or 30 years down the road. It will be interesting to see how he plays with the starting chip increase.

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Very few WSOP events will have fields of 3000 players. About half last year had 400 or less, and it is likely to be the same this year. A random player who plays 20 events with 200 entries has about a 10% of winning one. Daniel's chances are at least 2-3 times as good.

To say this year is his "last" chance is absurd. There is no indication that DN will not be playing in the WSOP 20 years from now. There is also no indication that the non-holdem events will grow much between now and then.

[JuntMonkey]

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Just do math and you'll see that on average he'll win one within 25-30 years, and that's being a little conservative.

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Eh, this is being a lot conservative, and assumes an average field size of 2,000. Another poster pointed out that many events have 400 or fewer, so the average is probably less than that.

[JoseGonzlez]

wow the schedule is really different this year.

some form of hold 'em everyday at noon and alot of days a 5 pm tourney in a stud, omaha, horse game.

the field sizes should be fairly small in these.
Plus there is 5000 low ball with rebuys (like 75 player field)

Id bet that Daniel wins a braclet within the next 2 years.