B&M LO8 3/6 Full Kill hand

[jlocdog]

[ QUOTE ]
EffenDolts,

Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

[/ QUOTE ]

taking away 50% of your outs here is wrong on just an assumption.

Also I would like to note that my OP was for folding.

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).



[/ QUOTE ]

I did some simulations to show how bad a shape you are in just because you opponents probably don't have a lot of low cards. I didn't give any villains a Q explicitly. In fact, 6 of their 12 cards are explicitly NOT queens in this simulation:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...h4=ALBB&h5=

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
102,748 trials (Randomized)
board: ThJs9d Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AsKs8d8h 10.76% 7,726 7,726 7,496 0 0
ALNN 21.37% 17,843 17,843 9,081 0 0
BBMM 39.66% 37,755 37,755 6,409 0 0
ALBB 28.21% 23,309 23,309 12,270 0 0

I would be interested if you could manipulate villains' holdings to give OP decent equity in the pot (without giving them lots of low cards). OP certainly doesn't have implied odds, since a Q on the turn makes idiot str8s and 2-pairs lose hope.

Effen

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
your backdoor draw does account for something.

[/ QUOTE ] jlocdog - I guess you’re referring to the backdoor nut flush draw.

Something?

I think of backdoor nut flush draws as worth approximately the equivalent of one out in Omaha-8. My reasoning is as follows:<ul type="square">If Hero holds two cards in the flush suit and there two cards in the flush suit on the board, then looking at it one way, (and disregarding the board pairing for simplicity) Hero has nine flush outs.

Looking at it another way (and also disregarding the board pairing for simplicity), of the 990 possible two-card combinations for the flop and river, C(36,2) = 630 do not make the flush for Hero. Therefore 360 turn-river two-card combinations do make the flush for Hero.

So at the same time,
• Hero has 9 outs (disregarding pairs) to make the flush
• Those 9 outs ultimately lead to 360 ways to make the flush.

Each out leads to 45 ways to make the flush (360/9=45).

Now contrast that to Hero having two cards in the flush suit while the flop has only one card in the flush suit. Again for the sake of simplicity, we’ll disregard pairs for the turn and river. Now Hero needs two cards of the flush suit, one on the turn and the other on the river, and there are 10 missing cards in the flush suit. C(10,2) = 45. Thus the backdoor flush draw has 45 ways to make the flush.

45/990 ways to make the flush via the backdoor is the same as 45/990 ways per out to make the flush with two flush cards on the flop.

Therefore one backdoor flush draw when the flop has one card of the flush suit = approximately one flush out when the flop has two cards of the flush suit.[/list]
[ QUOTE ]
Not so convinced that implied odds will make up for lack of pot odds since it seems your hand may be very transparent if you connect

[/ QUOTE ]Good point. When low is not possible, whatever cards are on the board on the river lead to some nut hand. A player betting the nuts is somewhat transparent if he/she only bets the nuts. You make up for this by not always needing the nuts to bet on the river. But yes, there’s no way around it, even if you sometimes bet non-nut hands on the river, your opponents will still be wary of your holding the nuts whenever you bet on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
but then again, maybe they will have manipulated the pot in such a way as to price themselves into a call on your bet/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, or maybe someone, even an astute opponent, will simply make a mistake and call when he/she should fold. if you don’t always only bet the stone cold nuts on the river, there’s a better chance of getting called. (I’m not suggesting going overboard - you need to use good judgement).

[ QUOTE ]
One thing going against you is that you are drawing (on the flop) to a hand thatcan still get redrawn on.

[/ QUOTE ]Good point.

[ QUOTE ]
I think this ppoint can almost be used to counter the backdoor 'out'.

[/ QUOTE ]The loss from having the river pair after making the straight on the turn is about the same as the amortized gain of one additional out. Depends on how you figure it, but yes, they’re the same order of magnitude.

But that’s the nature of the game of Omaha! You’re (almost) always going to either be rooting for the board to pair or not to pair on the river. It’s a downer when you make a straight or flush on the turn, then the board pairs on the river, and an opponent lays down cards that make a full house.

Do the implied odds make up for that river pairing effect? I don’t know. I don’t think of it that way, although I do consider both factors (implied pot odds and the possibility of losing on the river after making a hand on the turn).

We have to be very clear about whether we’re talking about implied pot odds after the flop or implied pot odds after the turn. There is a very great difference between the impied effect after the flop and after the turn.

Let’s look at them both. Let’s try to predict the pot we might expect on the river if we end up with a winner, (1) starting from after the flop when Hero is faced with one bet to call. Then we’ll also look at things (2) starting from after the turn.

(1) Disregarding the drop, and assuming SB is in on the action, there are 8 small bets already in the pot when the action gets back to Hero on the second betting round. Let’s assume that each of Hero’s three opponents puts a big bet into the pot on the third betting round, and let’s assume that only one of Hero’s three opponents puts a big bet into the pot on the fourth betting round. That amounts to 4 big bets (the equivalent of 8 more small bets) henceforth going into the pot.
It’s very difficult to estimate that exactly. There could be more than or less than that henceforth going into the pot. I think that’s sort of a middle ground realistic estimation, based on my own experience in these games, neither overly optomistic nor overly pessimistic.

At any rate, if you’ll accept my estimate of future moneys from opponents going into the pot when Hero ends up with a winning or tying hand, then Hero stands to win 16 small bets for the 1 small bet it costs him to see the turn and for the 3 small bets it will cost him to see the river if the turn is such that a call on the third betting round is justified. Thus Hero is getting roughly twice the implied pot odds as pot odds, starting after the flop. The implied effect is huge, doubling the pot odds.

(2) Starting from after this 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, there are 5+4 = 9 small bets = 4.5 big bets already in the pot. Presumably Hero checked and two opponents stayed in the pot, adding one big bet each. Thus there are 6.5 big bets in the pot when the action gets back to Hero. Let’s assume just one of them puts a bet into the pot on the river if the river makes Hero a winner.
Hero’s pot odds are 6.5 to 1 and hero’s implied pot odds are 7.5 to 1.
For case (2), the jump from pot odds to implied pot odds is not as great as it is for case (1). (But since the turn card was a spade, Hero’s outs have more than doubled).

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
With two people in the pot before you call the flop bet, you can't possibly believe there are four queens left in the deck?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Effen - As you surmise, there are probably not four queens left in the deck.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if the lead bettor doesn't have a made nut str8, you have to figure that one or both of the villains started with a high hand.

[/ QUOTE ]Possibly, but not necessarily. Someone could have something as poor as 2378, decide to continue after this flop, and actually be ahead of Hero if the game stopped after the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Two high hands are going to have at least one Q by random chance.

[/ QUOTE ]Again, possibly, but not necessarily.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Hi again Effen - [ QUOTE ]
Any way I slice it, I still think you have at least 2 queens accounted for by your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree. Four opponents holding a total of 16 cards see this flop and then three opponents holding a total of 12 cards continue. I don’t know how many queens they have between themselves. It’s a $3/$6 game. Maybe they don’t all play perfect mistake-free poker.

I’m going to give Idiot I 8765- all clubs, Idiot II AJT2-all diamonds, and Idiot III AA23-double suited in clubs and hearts. Or how about if we give Idiot I A2JJ, Idiot II A2TT, and idiot III A2JJ.

Yes, I know those are absurd speculations. But so is insisting they must have two or more queens (although, I’ll agree, two queens is not quite as absurd as the possibilities I’ve posed above).

You figure probabilities on the basis of what you can see. There is no evidence any one of these three opponents holds one queen, let alone two or more queens. Sure, someone probably has a queen, but I don’t think it’s necessarily correct to figure that way.

[ QUOTE ]
This leaves you with 2 outs in 33 cards, plus back-door draws.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
People who like high flops tend to have a lot of high cards in their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]Don’t you think it depends on the individual? There are players in my games who would be delighted to see the flop if dealt
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and then what is somebody who would play such a hand going to do with a flopped straight plus two back-door straight-flush draws after this JT9-rainbow flop? Sure, you don’t play that starting hand crap, and I don’t play that starting hand crap, but people do. And sure, you don’t play flopped bottom end straights with no chance for low and I don’t either, but some people do.

A cautious approach is sensible. But this is a $3/$6 game, not the final table at the world series. Hero is getting great implied pot odds to see the turn after this flop.

Buzz

[jlocdog]

Buzz,

As always, well said. Your analytical and mathematical approach to the game is thoughtful and insightful. I do appreciate when you chime in and offer your intellect.

I think this spot is very marginal either way and one can't be faulted for folding or calling the flop (the turn action we have both agreed with from the beginnning). You have brought up some good points and numbers to back them up and have convinced me that my 'you must fold' approach may be a bit hasty. Again, this descision is close in terms of pot odds to implied odds and dynamics and flow of the table will ultimately define my stance.

Till the next hand.....

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be interested if you could manipulate villains' holdings to give OP decent equity in the pot (without giving them lots of low cards).

[/ QUOTE ]Hi for a third time today Effen - If you insist they all play as tightly as or more tightly than you, and if you insist they all play as well as or better than you, then it’s hard to come up with hands for three opponents such that Hero would get paid off on the river here.

But five people saw this flop and then four continued after this flop. I don’t take that as meaning all those who continue have a decent hand with which to do so. Strong players might shave a corner in order to stay in this pot with a contributing customer.

With the information given, it’s very hard to know what cards three opponents might be holding after this flop. Even if sitting at the table it would be hard to know.

One factor simulations don't show is if Hero misses on the turn, Hero folds. A second factor simulations miss is when Hero picks up a spade draw on the turn, if he misses on the river, Hero folds. And the simulations don't show whether or not Hero exercises good judgement when he makes the nut straight or nut flush on the turn and the board subsequently pairs on the river.

However, opponents with straights, sets, or even two pairs, might not exercise good judgement when Hero makes the nuts. They might make mistakes.

Does the guy in middle position who has been playing a lot of hands and is pretty aggressive have top set or the current nut straight when he bets this flop? Perhaps. However, maybe he merely hopes no one else will have a fit with this all-high-card flop.

Two others call the flop bet. Do they have the top set or the nut straight? Perhaps. But if so, you have to wonder why they didn’t raise - and if not, you have to wonder why they are still in the pot.

Do all three of these opponents have high cards or does somebody have a queen? Are all of Hero’s outs already taken up by the hands of these three opponents? I don’t know. It’s possible, but not necessarily so.

With only has four inside straight draw outs plus a back-door flush draw, Hero is certainly behind after this flop. If Hero insists on seeing the river card regardless of the turn card, then Hero is not playing well and would definitely do better to fold. Or if low was posible, then with only about five outs for high, Hero should definitely fold. But assuming these opponents are capable of making mistakes, then I think Hero has great implied pot odds to see one more card after this flop.

I could have made a mistake in my assumptions or in the math, but I did calculate what I though was Hero’s e.v. last night. The result of that process is the basis for my believing Hero has favorable odds to continue. At this time I just don’t feel like trying to explain or elaborate on the assumptions or math. But I could post the scratchwork calculations including the assumptions I jotted down while running through the process if anybody wants to see and asks to see my figures.

Buzz

[wackjob]

muck the flop, you are OOP, and you are against at least 1 aggressive player.

[gostros]

[ QUOTE ]
muck the flop, you are OOP, and you are against at least 1 aggressive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has good relative position, and his decision is pretty easy on the turn, so early position and the aggressiveness of the betor are both non-factors.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
muck the flop, you are OOP,

[/ QUOTE ]WackJob - Presumably he's closing out the betting by calling on the second betting round. Also presumably he's folding if the turn is not one of about 10 favorable cards. If he folds, his position is immaterial. He should prefer to be last, but if he catches a favorable card, he can stand a bet or raise.

Thus his position is not much of a negative factor if he catches a favorable card on the turn and immaterial if he misses.

[ QUOTE ]
and you are against at least 1 aggressive player.

[/ QUOTE ]So?

Buzz